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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the read-only and idempotent annotations, the description discloses algorithmic details (Jaccard ≥0.30 similarity, >3pp deviation threshold, >20% placeholder filtering), response structure, and the fill-check step distinguishing theoretical vs realizable edge. It even provides a 'do not trade it' rule when realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0, giving the agent actionable behavioral guidance.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is lengthy but front-loaded with the core purpose and structured by mode. Every sentence adds operational detail (thresholds, examples, fill-check warning) that is necessary for this complex tool. No redundant phrases are present; the density is justified.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

The tool has no output schema, but the description fully explains the response fields (opportunities[] with gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, partition_check details) and the fill-check output. It also covers edge cases like skipped_low_similarity and null arb signals, making the description complete for an agent to invoke and interpret results.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Even with 100% schema coverage, the description adds substantial meaning: example event slugs and topic seeds, the behavior when no args are passed, and the internal logic each parameter triggers. It clarifies that event is the recommended mode for specific markets and topic for cross-event scanning, going well beyond the schema's basic field descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The first sentence states the purpose precisely: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes between event and topic modes and differentiates from polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, establishing a unique resource and mechanism.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit when-to-use guidance: no args for trending_scan, 'event' recommended for a specific market, 'topic' for cross-event scanning. It also explains why to choose one mode over the other (cross-event catches patterns single-event misses) and directs users to polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, satisfying the alternatives requirement.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.5/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools have overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, discover_tools, and suggest_questions all serve question-answering/discovery; polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_fill_risk, polymarket_kalshi_spread, and bet_research all analyze prediction markets; ai_visibility_check and scan_competitor_ai_presence overlap heavily. Only the three PeeringDB search tools are clearly distinct.

Naming Consistency2/5

Naming mixes verb-led snake_case (search_networks, validate_claim, subscribe) with noun-phrase tools (entity_profile, bet_research, recent_alerts) and inconsistent prefixes (ask_pipeworx vs ask_pipeworx_beta vs ask_pipeworx_grounded; polymarket_arbitrage vs polymarket_fill_risk vs polymarket_kalshi_spread). No consistent verb_noun pattern is present.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is heavy for a coherent surface, especially since the server is named 'Peeringdb' but only 3 of 34 tools relate to PeeringDB. The Pipeworx/Prediction-market/memory/AI-visibility tools form several distinct sub-domains that would be better split into separate servers or consolidated.

Completeness2/5

For PeeringDB, only search_exchanges/facilities/networks exist—no get-by-id, no facility/network details beyond search results, and no read/update operations. For the broader Pipeworx domain, coverage is fragmented: many meta-tools overlap while some obvious operations (e.g., updating a saved memory, deeper entity relationships) are missing. The domain is poorly scoped, making completeness hard to assess.