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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already mark the tool as read-only, idempotent, and non-destructive, reducing the burden. The description adds substantial behavioral context: the semantic similarity threshold (>=0.30 Jaccard), partition placeholder filtering, fill-check lookups against live CLOB depth, and specific response fields. It also flags when a signal should NOT be traded, which is critical operational nuance.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense but every sentence earns its place. It opens with a one-sentence overview, then systematically explains invocation modes, internal filters (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER), response shape, and fill-check behavior. Section labels (CAPS) break the text into scannable chunks, and there is no filler or tautology.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite lacking an output schema, the description enumerates the response fields (opportunities[], gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, partition_check fields). It covers edge conditions (placeholder filters, low similarity, fill check failure), explains both event and topic modes, and references related tools. The complexity of this tool is high, and the description fully prepares an agent to invoke it correctly and interpret results.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although schema descriptions cover 100% of parameters, the tool description adds significant meaning beyond them: it explains the difference between event and topic modes with concrete slug examples, describes what happens in each mode (walks child markets, checks date-axis ordering, searches related events), and notes cross-event patterns that single-event mode misses. This transforms the schema from a bare list into actionable usage knowledge.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a precise verb+resource statement: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly differentiates three invocation modes (no args, event, topic) and distinguishes this from sibling tools like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk, which are referenced explicitly when relevant.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit when-to-use guidance: use event mode for specific markets, topic mode for cross-event scans, and no-args for trending scan. It even names an alternative tool for custom sizing (polymarket_fill_risk) and warns against trading when fill check shows the edge is not realizable in the book.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools are near-duplicates: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded share nearly identical routing, with beta explicitly described as currently identical to stable. The six Polymarket-related tools also form a dense cluster with subtle boundaries, and discover_tools/suggest_questions overlap in onboarding purpose.

Naming Consistency4/5

Most tools follow a clear snake_case verb_noun pattern (check_password, resolve_entity, compare_entities, list_subscriptions), and family prefixes like ask_pipeworx_* and polymarket_* are applied consistently. Minor deviations exist (ai_visibility_check, pipeworx_trending), but the overall convention is predictable.

Tool Count2/5

32 tools is well past the 25+ threshold and the set feels bloated: several ask_pipeworx variants and Polymarket scanning tools could be consolidated, and unrelated utilities (check_password, scan_dependency, generate_llms_txt) are mixed into what is otherwise a data-research platform. The broad scope does not justify this many top-level entry points.

Completeness4/5

The main data-research workflow is well covered: routing, grounded verification, deep research, entity resolution/profiles, comparisons, recent changes, discovery, and feedback are all present. Memory and subscription lifecycles are also complete; minor gaps remain such as the lone password tool lacking generation or breach-checking companions, and no direct raw-fetch tool, but these are workable.

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