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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description provides extensive behavioral details: monotonicity checks, partition_sum logic, similarity thresholds, placeholder filtering, fill check with theoretical vs realizable edge, and response structure. Annotations (readOnlyHint: true, idempotent, non-destructive) are consistent and the description far exceeds annotation coverage, adding deep context about what the tool does under the hood.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is lengthy but well-structured with clear sections: modes, semantic anchor, partition filter, fill check. Every sentence adds necessary detail for a complex tool. Slightly verbose but justified given the depth of information. Front-loaded with main purpose.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite having only 2 optional parameters and no output schema, the description covers all necessary context: modes of operation, parameter usage, behavioral edge cases (similarity threshold, placeholder filter), fill check with criteria for not trading, and response structure (gap_pp, suggested_trade, etc.). It also references a sibling tool, making it self-contained and complete for the agent.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% but the description adds substantial meaning beyond field names and basic descriptions. For 'event' it gives examples of slugs and explains it walks child markets. For 'topic' it describes cross-event scanning and gives seed question examples. It explains how parameters affect behavior (e.g., cross-event mode catches patterns single-event misses). This adds significant value.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes between no-args trending scan, single-event mode, and cross-event mode with specific examples. The purpose is specific and easily distinguishable from sibling tools.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly tells when to use each mode: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan', 'event (recommended for a specific market)', 'topic (for cross-event scanning)'. It also explains the semantic anchor, partition filter, fill check scenario when not to trade, and directs to polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing. Comprehensive guidance with alternatives.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several near-overlapping query tools exist: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all route to the same underlying catalog, and ask_pipeworx_beta is currently described as identical to ask_pipeworx. The Polymarket tools (bet_research, polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_fill_risk, polymarket_edge_tracker) also heavily overlap and rely on lengthy descriptions to keep them apart.

Naming Consistency3/5

The set is uniformly snake_case and generally readable, but conventions are mixed: verb_noun (resolve_entity, suggest_questions), noun_verb (bet_research, ai_visibility_check), noun_adj (pipeworx_trending, recent_changes), and bare verbs (size, forget, recall) all appear. Variant suffixes like ask_pipeworx_beta and ask_pipeworx_grounded add further unpredictability.

Tool Count2/5

32 tools exceeds the 'too many' threshold and spans unrelated domains: package size, general data research, prediction markets, memory, and subscription management. The set would feel more coherent at roughly half the count, with several query and Polymarket tools consolidated.

Completeness3/5

For the dominant data-research purpose, the surface is reasonably complete: querying, grounded verification, deep research, entity resolution, entity profiles, comparisons, claim validation, and discovery are all covered. However, the server's stated identity ('Packagephobia') is nearly absent—only `size` and `scan_dependency` address package sizing—so the namesake domain is thin while unrelated domains are overbuilt.

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