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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true and destructiveHint=false, but the description adds critical behavioral context: fill check against live CLOB depth, realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 meaning 'do not trade', placeholder filtering (>20% returns null), and skipped_low_similarity surfacing rejected pair count. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Though dense, the description is front-loaded with the core purpose and then organized into labeled sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, RESPONSE, FILL CHECK). Every sentence earns its place; there is no fluff or repetition.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite having no output schema, the description documents the response shape (opportunities[] with fields, partition_check in event mode), explains filters, and covers edge cases like realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 and placeholder fraction >20%. For a tool of this complexity, this is complete and self-sufficient.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The input schema has 100% coverage for both parameters, and the description goes far beyond by explaining exactly what each parameter does: 'event' walks child markets and checks date-axis/partition, 'topic' flattens related events and runs the comparator on the union. It also clarifies how the parameter choices affect the response.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb+resource: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes three call modes (trending_scan, event, topic) and names polymarket_fill_risk as the alternative for custom sizing.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit usage guidance is provided: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan', 'pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check', and 'topic for a themed cross-event scan.' It also states when not to trade (realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0) and explicitly points to polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Most tools have distinct purposes, but the ask_pipeworx trio (stable, beta, grounded) are near-identical variants, and the five polymarket_* tools plus bet_research heavily overlap in the edge-finding space. Detailed descriptions help, but an agent could easily misselect among these clusters.

Naming Consistency3/5

Names are all snake_case and readable, but conventions vary: ask_pipeworx_* uses a prefix pattern, polymarket_* is consistent, yet others mix verbs (scan_competitor_ai_presence, generate_llms_txt) with nouns (entity_profile, resolve_entity). No single verb_noun pattern governs the set.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is well above the 25-tool threshold and feels like multiple servers merged into one: structured data routing, prediction markets, OSM, memory, subscriptions, and AI-visibility checks. The breadth is impressive but the count is heavy for a single tool surface.

Completeness4/5

The surface is notably complete for its blended domain: memory has remember/recall/forget, subscriptions have subscribe/list/unsubscribe, data access has multiple router modes plus deep research and claim validation, and prediction markets have research, edge, arbitrage, fill-risk, and cross-venue tools. Minor gaps exist (no subscription update, no explicit reverse-geocoding tool), but core workflows are covered.

Resources