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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint true, and destructiveHint false. The description adds substantial behavioral context beyond annotations: it describes the fill check that prices against live CLOB depth, the semantic anchor for similarity, partition filter for placeholders, and specific conditions when to avoid trading (realizable_edge_pp <= 0). No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is comprehensive and every sentence adds value. It is front-loaded with the main purpose. While it is lengthy, the complexity of the tool justifies the detail. Slightly more structured formatting (e.g., bullet points for modes) could improve readability, but it is still effective.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

No output schema exists, so the description must cover return values. It does so thoroughly: describes opportunities[] with fields like gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning; partition_check in event mode; fill check results including realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg and thin_legs[]. It also covers error-like signals (skipped_low_similarity, placeholder filtering). The description is complete for the tool's complexity.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so baseline is 3. The description adds rich meaning: for 'event', it explains slugs and full URLs are accepted; for 'topic', it gives examples and explains cross-event scanning. It also describes internal logic like monotonicity and partition checks, greatly enriching the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes between modes (no args, event, topic) and specifies the resource (Polymarket markets) and action (finding arbitrage). It differentiates from sibling tools like polymarket_edges by focusing specifically on arbitrage detection.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly provides usage guidelines for each mode: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan...', 'event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug...', 'topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question...'. It includes examples and warns when not to trade via fill check. It also mentions polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, guiding the agent to alternatives.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.5/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have near-identical or heavily overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are currently identical, ask_pipeworx and validate_claim both answer factual questions, and discover_tools and suggest_questions both surface capabilities. The dense set of Polymarket and entity-research tools further blurs boundaries despite long descriptions.

Naming Consistency3/5

Names are consistently snake_case, but they do not follow a single predictable verb_noun pattern: actionable names like ask_pipeworx, search_projects, and compare_entities mix with noun-style names like polymarket_edges, pipeworx_feedback, and recent_changes. The convention is readable but not uniform.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools exceeds the reasonable scope for a coherent server, and many are near-duplicate variants or members of sprawling tool families (ask_pipeworx variants, multiple Polymarket scanners, several meta/discovery tools). The set would be stronger with consolidation around a smaller number of distinct capabilities.

Completeness1/5

If this server is meant to provide OSF access, the surface is severely incomplete: only search_projects, search_preprints, and get_project exist, with no create/update/delete, file handling, registration, or contributor access. If it is meant to be a broader Pipeworx assistant, the OSF tools are unrelated and the domain is so scattered that coverage is incoherent.

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