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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Despite annotations already indicating readOnlyHint=true and idempotentHint=true, the description goes far beyond by detailing internal checks (semantic anchor requiring ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity, partition filter dropping placeholder slugs), response structure, and the fill check caveat: 'realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it.' This is rich behavioral context that is not present in annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured with explicit section labels (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) and front-loaded with the core purpose. Every section adds necessary detail. It could be slightly tighter without losing critical caveats, so it earns a 4 rather than 5.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (three modes, multiple filters, and a fill check) and the absence of an output schema, the description fully compensates by detailing response fields, the partition_check object, and the fill-check pricing logic. It also directs users to polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, covering the full usage context.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%: both 'event' and 'topic' have descriptions in the schema. The tool description adds value by explaining the mode selection rationale (which to use when), providing example slugs and seed questions, and clarifying that full URLs are accepted. This goes beyond the schema's brief descriptions, earning a 4.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific, non-tautological statement: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes from siblings by naming the arbitrage focus and three distinct modes (trending_scan, event, topic), and even references polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, which separates it from that sibling.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit when-to-use guidance: 'event (recommended for a specific market)' and 'topic (for cross-event scanning)', along with concrete examples. It also states when NOT to use the tool: 'For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.' Additionally, it explains why cross-event mode is valuable and what it catches that single-event misses.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools overlap in purpose: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all answer questions; multiple prediction market tools (polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_fill_risk) have subtle distinctions. An agent would struggle to choose correctly among these.

Naming Consistency4/5

Tool names follow a consistent snake_case verb_noun pattern (e.g., list_subscriptions, generate_llms_txt). A few are noun phrases (stable_phases) but the style is uniform and predictable.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools is high for a single server, especially given the mix of two unrelated domains (materials database and general data querying). Many prediction market tools could be consolidated, and the broad scope suggests over-engineering.

Completeness3/5

The materials data side covers search and retrieval adequately. The query side offers many capabilities but has redundant paths (e.g., multiple ways to ask questions) and gaps in editing or updating data. Overall coverage is mixed.

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