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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description discloses extensive behavioral details including internal algorithm (monotonicity, partition checks), semantic anchor (Jaccard similarity), partition filter (placeholder slugs), fill check against CLOB depth, and output structure. No contradiction with annotations (readOnlyHint, idempotentHint, etc.).

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is relatively long (approx. 300 words) but well-structured into sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK). Every sentence adds value; however, some redundancy exists (e.g., 'pass' repeated). Still, it is appropriately detailed for a complex tool.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (2 parameters, no output schema), the description covers all necessary aspects: input modes, internal logic, output fields, error/edge cases (low similarity, placeholders), and trading guidance (fill check). No missing critical information.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Both 'event' and 'topic' parameters have schema descriptions, and the main description adds significant context: examples of valid inputs ('fed-decision-may-2026'), explanation of each mode's behavior, and how parameters affect scanning. This goes beyond the schema descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It distinguishes the tool from siblings by specifying its unique function and provides specific examples of use cases for each mode.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly instructs when to use each mode: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan', 'event (recommended for a specific market)', 'topic (for cross-event scanning)'. It also warns when not to trade (fill check) and suggests an alternative tool 'polymarket_fill_risk' for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have heavily overlapping entry points: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, and validate_claim all take natural-language factual questions, and ask_pipeworx_beta is explicitly identical to ask_pipeworx right now. There is also overlap among get_states, get_aircraft, and airspace_activity, plus a large cluster of prediction-market tools with similar discovery purposes.

Naming Consistency4/5

The set is mostly snake_case and readable, with familiar patterns like get_*, list_*, resolve_*, and compare_*. It is not chaotic, but there are notable deviations: noun-phrase names like entity_profile, recent_changes, ai_visibility_check, and airspace_activity break the verb-first pattern.

Tool Count2/5

35 tools is too many for a single coherent server, especially because they comprise several independent families: aviation, data/research, prediction markets, memory, and subscriptions. Each tool is individually justified, but the bundle should be split into smaller focused MCP servers.

Completeness3/5

The data-research side is fairly complete, with discover, routing, grounded verification, entity resolution, search-within, compare, and follow-up tools, and the subscription and memory lifecycles are covered. However, the OpenSky side is incomplete: get_flights explicitly cannot return its data, and referenced route/arrival/departure tools are missing from the set.

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