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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • removedInput schema / anyOf
      Removed value: -[
      -  {
      -    "required": [
      -      "event"
      -    ]
      -  },
      -  {
      -    "required": [
      -      "topic"
      -    ]
      -  }
      -]
  2. Changed3 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / anyOf
      Added value: +[
      +  {
      +    "required": [
      +      "event"
      +    ]
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "required": [
      +      "topic"
      +    ]
      +  }
      +]
    • changedInput schema / properties / event / description
      Previous value: -"Single-event mode: Polymarket event slug (e.g. \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\") or full URL."New value: +"Single-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like \"fed-decision-may-2026\" or \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted."
    • changedInput schema / properties / topic / description
      Previous value: -"Cross-event mode: a topic or seed question. Tool searches Polymarket for related markets across separate events and checks monotonicity across them. E.g. \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\"."New value: +"Cross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like \"Fed rate decision\" or \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them."
  3. Added

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnly/openWorld/idempotent, and the description adds deeper behavioral context: semantic anchor Jaccard similarity threshold, partition placeholder filter, fill check against live CLOB depth, and the caveat that realizable edge can differ from theoretical edge. These go well beyond the annotation flags.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Though lengthy, each sentence earns its place. The description uses visual markers (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) to structure complex content, and examples clarify usage. It is front-loaded with the core purpose and modes before diving into edge behaviors.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given no output schema, the description carries the burden of explaining return values and does so thoroughly: opportunities[], partition_check fields, skipped_low_similarity, and thin_legs[]. It covers all three modes and trade/no-trade decision criteria, making the tool fully self-contained for an agent.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, but the description greatly enriches both parameters: event accepts slugs or full URLs, topic expects a seed question with examples, and explains how each mode behaves (e.g., cross-event catches date-axis patterns). This adds meaning beyond the schema field descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb+resource: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes this tool from siblings by naming the three modes (trending_scan, event, topic) and contrasting with related tools like polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit when-to-use guidance: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan', 'event (recommended for a specific market)', and 'topic (for cross-event scanning)'. It also states when not to trade ('realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 ... do not trade it') and points to an alternative tool for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.5/5.0
Disambiguation1/5

Several tools are effectively indistinguishable or near-duplicates: ask_pipeworx_beta is explicitly an identical copy of ask_pipeworx with no active experimental changes, and ask_pipeworx_grounded is a variant of the same router. discover_tools, suggest_questions, deep_research, and the ask_pipeworx family also heavily overlap as discovery/answer surfaces, while bet_research, polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, and polymarket_fill_risk create a dense prediction-market cluster with fuzzy boundaries.

Naming Consistency3/5

Everything is snake_case and many names follow a readable verb_noun pattern (search_works, resolve_entity, validate_claim, suggest_questions), but conventions are mixed: noun-first domain-prefixed names (polymarket_edges, pipeworx_feedback, pipeworx_trending), bare verbs (remember, forget, recall), and adjective_noun names (deep_research, recent_changes) coexist. The inconsistency is not chaotic, but it is not a unified scheme.

Tool Count2/5

36 tools is well over the 25-tool threshold for a heavy toolset, and the count is inflated by many tangential concerns: memory, subscriptions, feedback, trending, npm dependency scanning, AI visibility, and llms.txt generation. Only a small subset actually serves the stated OpenAlex/scholarly purpose, so the size feels bloated rather than well-scoped.

Completeness2/5

For a server named openalex, the scholarly surface is incomplete: works support search and fetch, but authors and institutions only support search with no get-by-ID, concepts support get but no search, and major OpenAlex resource types like sources, publishers, funders, and topics are absent. The many non-OpenAlex tools do not fill these gaps and instead dilute the domain coverage.