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Open Contracting

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations indicate readOnly, openWorld, idempotent, non-destructive. Description adds extensive behavioral details: partition check threshold, Jaccard similarity anchor, placeholder filter, fill check against CLOB depth, return structure. No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured with clear sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK). It is front-loaded with the main purpose. Every sentence adds value, though slightly verbose.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (arbitrage detection with multiple modes, fill check, thresholds), the description covers edge cases like placeholder filtering, similarity checks, and book depth. No output schema, but return fields are well described.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%. Description adds meaning for both event (slug or URL, single-event mode) and topic (seed question, cross-event scanning), plus explains default behavior without args.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes between two modes (event vs topic) and the default no-args scan, making the purpose specific and unambiguous.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidance is given: no args for trending scan, event for specific market, topic for cross-event. It also explains when not to trade (if fill check shows no realizable edge). Compares to sibling polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tool clusters overlap heavily: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, discover_tools, and suggest_questions all serve query/discovery purposes; polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_fill_risk, and bet_research all target prediction-market opportunity detection. ask_pipeworx_beta is explicitly identical to ask_pipeworx right now, making the distinction essentially invisible without deep description parsing.

Naming Consistency3/5

Names mix domain prefixes (oc_*, polymarket_*, pipeworx_*), action verbs (validate_claim, resolve_entity, generate_llms_txt), and plain nouns (entity_profile, recent_alerts, recent_changes). Most are readable snake_case, but there is no uniform verb_noun or domain-first convention, so the set feels stylistically fragmented rather than patterned.

Tool Count2/5

35 tools is a heavy surface for a server ostensibly named 'Open Contracting' — only 4 of the 35 tools actually relate to open contracting data. The rest sprawl across general data lookup, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions, npm scanning, and AI visibility, making the tool count feel bloated and unfocused relative to the stated purpose.

Completeness2/5

For the open-contracting domain implied by the server name, the surface is incomplete: there is coverage metadata, search, recent releases, and process history, but no direct retrieval of a single release by ID and no broader OCDS exploration tools. As a general data/Pipeworx toolkit the coverage is wide, but the severe mismatch between the server name and the actual tool set creates a significant gap between expectation and capability.

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