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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Even with readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, and destructiveHint already set, the description adds substantial behavioral context: it explains that legs with unknown metric_type or match_subtype are never paired, that compatibility fields can be non-empty even when matched_pairs > 0, that pairing is always keyword-based and unverified, and that null temporal_alignment means unknown rather than aligned. The fee disclosure stating that every spread is gross, not net tradeable edge, is especially valuable.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but dense, with every section serving a purpose: modes, response shape, safety fields, compatibility codes, skip counters, and fee caveats. It uses uppercase labels and front-loads purpose before enumerating details. It could be restructured into clearer sections rather than one large prose block, but the length is largely justified by the tool's complexity and safety-critical interpretation rules.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

There is no output schema, so the description carries the full burden of explaining return values, and it does so thoroughly: leg-by-leg prices, top_spreads_pp, per-entry flags, compatibility fields, temporal alignment semantics, skipped leg counters, low_confidence_pairs, and fees_note. It also covers the null-means-unknown semantics and the unverified nature of pairing. For a comparably complex tool, nothing critical is missing.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although the schema already documents all three parameters at 100% coverage, the description adds meaning beyond the schema: topic is a curated shortcut list with examples, explicit kalshi_event_ticker and polymarket_event_slug override the topic-mapped side, and both modes run the identical token-overlap matcher. This prevents an agent from assuming different semantics for each mode.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific statement: 'Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question.' It clearly names the resource, the computation, and the cross-venue scope, and it distinguishes this tool from same-venue or other research siblings by emphasizing cross-venue comparison. The two modes and response summary further reinforce what the tool does.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description clearly explains when to use the tool — for matching questions across Kalshi and Polymarket — and distinguishes the two invocation modes: pre-mapped topic shortcuts versus explicit ticker/slug pairings. It also gives important when-not guidance: pre-mapped topics often return compatibility warnings and are not automatically tradeable, and spreads are gross, not net of Kalshi fees. It does not explicitly name alternative sibling tools, so it stops short of a full 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4/5.0
Disambiguation4/5

Most tools have distinct purposes, but there is some overlap, especially among ask_pipeworx variants (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, ask_pipeworx_beta) and prediction market tools (polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_fill_risk, polymarket_kalshi_spread, bet_research). While descriptions help distinguish them, the boundaries are somewhat fuzzy.

Naming Consistency2/5

Naming conventions are inconsistent. Some tools use verb_noun (search_sequence, compare_entities), others use noun_verb (entity_profile, recent_changes), and some have prefixes (pipeworx_feedback, pipeworx_trending) while others do not (remember, forget). There is no uniform pattern, which reduces predictability.

Tool Count2/5

The server name 'Oeis' suggests a focus on integer sequences, but only 2 of 33 tools are OEIS-related. The remaining tools cover a vast array of unrelated domains (data retrieval, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions). This mismatch between name and scope makes the tool count feel excessive and poorly scoped.

Completeness4/5

Within the broad domains covered, the tool surface is quite complete. For memory, there are remember/recall/forget; for subscriptions, subscribe/unsubscribe/list_subscriptions/recent_alerts; for data retrieval, multiple entry points. Minor gaps exist, such as lack of OEIS sequence contribution tools, but overall the set is well-rounded.