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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description goes far beyond the readOnly/openWorld/idempotent annotations by disclosing compatibility_warning and compatibility_codes, the gross-vs-net fee distinction, skipped unclassified legs, per-entry flags, and the fact that both modes run the same token-overlap matcher. This is exemplary behavioral disclosure for a complex comparison tool with no output schema.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but highly structured, with clear labeled sections (TWO MODES, RESPONSE, SAFETY FIELDS, Codes) and the core purpose front-loaded. A few disclosures are repeated across different sections for emphasis, so it is not maximally concise, but every sentence carries substantive safety or usage information.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description carries the full burden of explaining return values, and it does so thoroughly: leg-by-leg prices, top_spreads_pp, compatibility fields, per-entry flags, temporal_alignment semantics, fees_note, and skipped-comparison counters. An agent has enough information to interpret results safely and correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although the schema already documents the three parameters at 100% coverage, the description adds critical semantics: topic expands to ten named macro shortcuts, explicit tickers override the topic-mapped side, and both modes run identical matching logic. It tells the agent how parameters interact and what each mode produces, which the schema alone does not convey.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The opening sentence—'Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question'—names a specific resource and computation clearly. It does not explicitly differentiate itself from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage or polymarket_edges, so it misses the top bar for sibling distinction.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description clearly explains the two modes—topic shortcuts versus explicit event pairings—and tells agents when each is appropriate, including that pre-mapped topics often return compatibility warnings. It gives strong context about output reliability but does not explicitly say 'use this instead of X' or name alternatives, so no exclusions are provided.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Most tools have distinct purposes and the descriptions are unusually thorough, but ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are explicitly identical right now, and several discovery/prediction-market tools (polymarket_edges vs polymarket_arbitrage, discover_tools vs suggest_questions) occupy overlapping territory. An agent could reasonably route to the wrong variant despite the documentation.

Naming Consistency4/5

The dominant convention is lowercase snake_case with a leading verb (ask_pipeworx, list_subscriptions, validate_claim, resolve_entity), which makes the set predictable. A few noun-first outliers like pipeworx_trending, recent_alerts, and polymarket_edge_tracker are minor deviations rather than a broken pattern.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is well above the coherence sweet spot for an MCP server, and much of that count is made up of meta-wrappers and convenience variants around the same Pipeworx router. The broad scope explains some of the count, but the surface still feels heavy for a single named server.

Completeness3/5

The Pipeworx side is very complete: lookups, grounded verification, research, entity profiles, comparisons, prediction-market fill checks, subscriptions, and memory all have lifecycle coverage. However, the server is named Obis and only find_occurrences, get_statistics, and get_taxon serve that domain, leaving obvious marine-biodiversity operations like occurrence detail, dataset listing, and download paths missing.