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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Adds significant context beyond annotations: explains monotonicity checks, partition_sum check, Jaccard similarity filter, placeholder fraction filter, and fill check with live CLOB depth. Warns not to trade if realizable edge ≤ 0. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Well-structured and front-loaded with core purpose. All sentences add value, but some technical details (like Jaccard threshold, placeholder filtering) could be slightly more compact. Still efficient.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

No output schema, but description fully explains return fields: opportunities[] with gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, violation context, and partition_check details for event mode. Also covers fill check. Complete for this complex tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema covers 100% of parameters with descriptions. Description adds depth: examples of slugs, explanation of what each mode does internally, and behavior like partition check or Jaccard matching. Greatly enhances understanding beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes three modes (no args for trending scan, event for single market, topic for cross-event), making it distinct from siblings like polymarket_edges or polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidance: when to use no args (trending scan of top 200 markets), event (recommended for a specific market with slug example), and topic (cross-event scanning with seed question). Provides examples and explains cross-event mode catches patterns missed by single-event mode.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Most tools have distinct purposes and the descriptions are unusually thorough, but ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are explicitly identical right now, and several discovery/prediction-market tools (polymarket_edges vs polymarket_arbitrage, discover_tools vs suggest_questions) occupy overlapping territory. An agent could reasonably route to the wrong variant despite the documentation.

Naming Consistency4/5

The dominant convention is lowercase snake_case with a leading verb (ask_pipeworx, list_subscriptions, validate_claim, resolve_entity), which makes the set predictable. A few noun-first outliers like pipeworx_trending, recent_alerts, and polymarket_edge_tracker are minor deviations rather than a broken pattern.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is well above the coherence sweet spot for an MCP server, and much of that count is made up of meta-wrappers and convenience variants around the same Pipeworx router. The broad scope explains some of the count, but the surface still feels heavy for a single named server.

Completeness3/5

The Pipeworx side is very complete: lookups, grounded verification, research, entity profiles, comparisons, prediction-market fill checks, subscriptions, and memory all have lifecycle coverage. However, the server is named Obis and only find_occurrences, get_statistics, and get_taxon serve that domain, leaving obvious marine-biodiversity operations like occurrence detail, dataset listing, and download paths missing.

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