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Nyt

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description goes far beyond the annotations (readOnlyHint, idempotentHint, etc.) by detailing internal behavior: market resolution, classification, fan-out to data packs, response structure, safety mechanisms (low-confidence short-circuit, closed market handling), and cancellation rule parsing. No contradiction with annotations; the tool is read-only as described.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is comprehensive but verbose, containing extensive details such as classifiers, fan-out examples, and response shapes. While every sentence adds value, the length might overwhelm some agents. The structure is logical with clear sections (RESOLVER CONTRACT, PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR, etc.), and critical information is front-loaded.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity and the absence of an output schema, the description is exceptionally complete. It covers input formats, output structure (result.market, result.analysis, result.evidence), behavior for various bet types, edge cases (illiquid markets, closed markets), and safety instructions. The details on resolver contracts and cancellation rules ensure agents can handle results appropriately.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although the input schema has 100% description coverage, the tool description adds significant meaning by explaining how each parameter affects behavior. For example, it clarifies that 'market' accepts slug, URL, or question text, it describes the 'depth' parameter with 'quick' vs 'thorough' definitions, and it explains the 'include_raw' parameter's impact on response size. This context greatly aids correct parameter usage.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's primary function: 'Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call.' It uses specific verbs ('research', 'pull') and identifies the resource ('Polymarket bet', 'Pipeworx data'). The description also distinguishes the tool from siblings by its comprehensive, all-in-one research scope, as opposed to specialized tools like polymarket_arbitrage or polymarket_edges.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly lists use cases: 'Use for 'should I bet on X', 'what does the data say about Y', or 'is there edge in Z'.' It provides guidance on when to trust the analysis by instructing users to inspect the 'market_match_confidence' field. While it doesn't explicitly state when not to use the tool, the use cases are clear and cover the intended scenarios.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are explicitly identical today, and ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, and validate_claim all route to the same underlying sources with overlapping question-answering purposes. Entity-focused tools like entity_profile, compare_entities, recent_changes, and resolve_entity also have fuzzy boundaries that make selection error-prone.

Naming Consistency2/5

Names mix conventions: verb_noun (list_subscriptions, search_articles, generate_llms_txt), bare verbs (remember, recall, forget), noun phrases (polymarket_arbitrage, pipeworx_trending, entity_profile), and an ask_* family with beta/grounded variants. There is no consistent verb or noun pattern across the set.

Tool Count2/5

With 35 tools, the surface is well above the 15-tool threshold for a focused server, and most tools are unrelated to the NYT domain implied by the server name. The breadth reflects a broad data-platform grab bag rather than a scoped, intentional tool set.

Completeness4/5

The query side is unusually complete: single-lookup, grounded lookup, deep research, claim validation, entity resolution, comparison, profile, change-feed, discovery, memory, and subscription lifecycle tools are all present. Minor gaps remain, such as no direct NYT article fetch by URL and no update path for stored memories, but agents can work around them.

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