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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations (readOnlyHint=true, idempotentHint=true) already mark this safe, and the description adds substantial non-obvious behavior: pairing is by keyword/word overlap rather than a shared resolution source (pairing_unverified), spreads are gross of Kalshi fees, temporal alignment null does NOT mean aligned, and unclassified legs are never paired. These disclosures meaningfully exceed annotation coverage with zero contradiction.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is quite long (well over 400 words) and densely packed. It is well-organized with clear section markers (TWO MODES, RESPONSE, SAFETY FIELDS) and every sentence earns its place given there is no output schema to carry return-format detail. However, it is not front-loaded — the safety codes and temporal-alignment discussion push the core example toward the tail — and some prose could be tightened.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a 3-param, two-mode tool with no output schema, the description does the heavy lifting admirably. It covers mode selection, response shape (raw probabilities, top_spreads_pp, skipped_unclassified, low_confidence_pairs), all compatibility codes, temporal-alignment semantics, the fees_note caveat, and skipped-comparison counters. Nothing an agent needs to interpret results correctly is missing.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% (all three params are documented in the schema), so baseline is 3. The description adds real value beyond the schema by explaining the mode semantics — that 'topic' auto-fetches matching events on each venue via 10 named shortcuts, and that either explicit override runs the identical token-overlap matcher. This mode interplay is not captured in the schema's per-parameter lines.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The opening line is precise: 'Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question.' It names both venues and the comparison operation, distinguishing itself from single-venue siblings like polymarket_edges and polymarket_arbitrage. The subject of comparison — same-outcome pricing delta — is unambiguous.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description spells out two modes with explicit selection criteria ('topic' for pre-mapped macro shortcuts, explicit ticker+slug for custom pairings) and notes both run the identical matcher. It also warns that 'pre-mapped ≠ tradeable' and that real spreads are rare, shaping expectations. However, it never names an alternative sibling tool to use instead, leaving when-not-to-use implicit rather than explicit.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation4/5

Most tools have distinct purposes (e.g., entity_profile vs compare_entities), but there is some overlap between ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research, as well as among polymarket tools, which could cause misselection.

Naming Consistency2/5

Tool names are inconsistent, mixing verb_noun (list_flows, get_series) with descriptive names (ask_pipeworx, bet_research) and varying conventions (snake_case vs no underscores).

Tool Count3/5

33 tools is on the high side but manageable for a broad platform; however, the server name 'Norges Bank' suggests a narrower scope, making the count feel bloated.

Completeness2/5

For a server named 'Norges Bank', many tools are irrelevant (polymarket, pipeworx meta-tools, memory, etc.), leaving significant gaps in core Norwegian banking data coverage.