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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnly, idempotent, and non-destructive behavior, so the description adds substantial beyond-annotation context: token-overlap matching, compatibility codes, unknown legs never being paired, null temporal fields, skipped counters, and the gross-vs-net fee caveat. This is especially valuable because it prevents an agent from misreading spread values as net tradeable edges.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but dense, with each section carrying distinct decision-relevant information: modes, response anatomy, safety fields, codes, fee treatment, and dropped comparisons. The core definition is front-loaded, and the length is justified by the tool's complexity, though section breaks would improve readability.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a complex tool with no output schema, the description covers return fields, flag semantics, null meanings, matching limitations, and fee caveats. An agent has enough context to invoke both modes correctly and interpret responses accurately, including edge cases like unclassified legs and temporal ambiguity.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so each parameter is already documented. The description adds meaning beyond the schema by explaining the relationship between topic and the two override parameters, and by clarifying that both modes run the same matcher. This lifts it above the baseline while not being strictly necessary for invocation.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The opening sentence states a specific function: computing the cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. It clearly distinguishes this tool from same-venue edge tools by emphasizing the cross-venue scope and matching logic. The two modes and response scope further pin down exactly what the tool does.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives explicit decision guidance for TWO MODES: using 10 pre-mapped topics versus supplying explicit ticker/slug pairings. It also warns that pre-mapped topics often return compatibility warnings and are not automatically tradeable. It does not name a specific sibling alternative, but the mode-based selection guidance is clear enough.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.1/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The 7 NOAA-specific tools (stations, station_metadata, water_level, currents, met_obs, predictions, datums) are clearly distinct, but they are buried among ~31 Pipeworx platform tools with heavy internal overlap: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all route factual queries, while polymarket_edges, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_fill_risk, and polymarket_kalshi_spread all analyze prediction-market opportunities. An agent cannot easily tell whether the generic question-answering or prediction-market tools are the right choice without reading long descriptions.

Naming Consistency2/5

Most tools use snake_case, but the naming conventions are inconsistent: some use descriptive nouns (stations, datums, predictions), some use noun_verb pairs (water_level, met_obs), and the Pipeworx batch mixes vendor-prefixed names (pipeworx_feedback, pipeworx_trending), bare verbs (remember, forget, recall, subscribe, unsubscribe), and multi-word verbs (generate_llms_txt, scan_competitor_ai_presence, ask_pipeworx_grounded). No predictable pattern unifies the set.

Tool Count1/5

38 tools is far too many for a server named 'Noaa Tides' — only 7 tools relate to NOAA tide/current data, and the other 31 are an unrelated general-purpose data platform (SEC filings, prediction markets, npm packages, AI visibility scanning, memory storage). The overwhelming majority of the surface has nothing to do with the server's stated purpose, making the count and composition a severe mismatch.

Completeness4/5

For the nominal NOAA tides domain, the surface is reasonably complete: station listing, metadata, observed water levels, currents, meteorological observations, tide predictions, and datums cover the core workflows. Minor gaps exist (e.g., no harmonic constituents or extreme water-level statistics tool), but the essential operations are present. The unrelated tools do not fill gaps in the NOAA domain — they are clutter rather than coverage.