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Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

TDQS

A4.4/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description goes well beyond read-only/idempotent annotations, disclosing resolver confidence gating, low-confidence short-circuit statuses, closed-market behavior, wide-spread tradeability flags, news fallback fields, and cancellation-rule risk. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is front-loaded with a one-sentence purpose and uses CAPS-section headers to organize dense content. It is long, but the length is justified by the tool's complexity; still not as tight as the best-case two-sentence examples.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description fully specifies response shapes, resolver contract fields, parent-event partition data, status codes, and safety behaviors. It also covers edge cases like illiquid spreads and cancellation-rule risks, making it essentially self-contained.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema already provides full descriptions for all three params, including enums and defaults. The main description mostly restates accepted market input formats and does not add material new meaning to depth or include_raw semantics; examples of fan-out behavior are useful but not parameter-level detail.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Opening sentence names the exact action: 'Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call.' It further specifies inputs, classification, fan-out, and output comparison, clearly distinguishing it from sibling data-retrieval tools.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly states use cases ('should I bet on X', 'what does the data say about Y', 'is there edge in Z') and provides detailed fan-out examples. It does not explicitly contrast with sibling Polymarket tools (e.g., polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges), so it falls just short of a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.1/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The 7 NOAA-specific tools (stations, station_metadata, water_level, currents, met_obs, predictions, datums) are clearly distinct, but they are buried among ~31 Pipeworx platform tools with heavy internal overlap: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all route factual queries, while polymarket_edges, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_fill_risk, and polymarket_kalshi_spread all analyze prediction-market opportunities. An agent cannot easily tell whether the generic question-answering or prediction-market tools are the right choice without reading long descriptions.

Naming Consistency2/5

Most tools use snake_case, but the naming conventions are inconsistent: some use descriptive nouns (stations, datums, predictions), some use noun_verb pairs (water_level, met_obs), and the Pipeworx batch mixes vendor-prefixed names (pipeworx_feedback, pipeworx_trending), bare verbs (remember, forget, recall, subscribe, unsubscribe), and multi-word verbs (generate_llms_txt, scan_competitor_ai_presence, ask_pipeworx_grounded). No predictable pattern unifies the set.

Tool Count1/5

38 tools is far too many for a server named 'Noaa Tides' — only 7 tools relate to NOAA tide/current data, and the other 31 are an unrelated general-purpose data platform (SEC filings, prediction markets, npm packages, AI visibility scanning, memory storage). The overwhelming majority of the surface has nothing to do with the server's stated purpose, making the count and composition a severe mismatch.

Completeness4/5

For the nominal NOAA tides domain, the surface is reasonably complete: station listing, metadata, observed water levels, currents, meteorological observations, tide predictions, and datums cover the core workflows. Minor gaps exist (e.g., no harmonic constituents or extreme water-level statistics tool), but the essential operations are present. The unrelated tools do not fill gaps in the NOAA domain — they are clutter rather than coverage.