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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, and destructiveHint as false. The description adds rich behavioral context: details on semantic anchor (Jaccard similarity ≥0.30), partition filter (placeholder slugs), fill check against live CLOB depth, and output structure. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is front-loaded with the core purpose and then expands logically into mode details. While lengthy, every sentence adds value for a complex tool. Minor redundancy in parameter descriptions could be trimmed, but overall well-structured.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Without an output schema, the description thoroughly explains return values and internal logic: opportunities array fields, partition_check structure, fill_check details, and edge cases like skipped_low_similarity and placeholder filtering. It is complete for a two-mode tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with descriptions for both parameters. The description adds meaning by explaining the difference between event and topic modes, providing example inputs (e.g., 'fed-decision-may-2026'), and detailing internal processing. This enhances understanding beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It distinguishes between three modes (trending_scan, event, topic) and differentiates from sibling tools like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk by focusing on arbitrage detection.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidelines are provided: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan... pass event for... pass topic for...' The description recommends when to use each mode, explains cross-event advantages, and directs to polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, offering clear when-to-use vs alternatives.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Most tools have clearly distinct roles, and the extensive descriptions help differentiate intent, but the ask_pipeworx family—especially ask_pipeworx_beta, which is currently identical to ask_pipeworx—creates real ambiguity. Overlapping entry points like ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, and validate_claim could also cause misselection without careful reading.

Naming Consistency4/5

All 34 tools use consistent snake_case, and clear verb-led or noun-prefixed patterns emerge across families like ask_pipeworx*, polymarket_*, and remember/recall/forget. Minor deviations such as ai_visibility_check and recent_changes being noun phrases rather than verb_noun constructions prevent a perfect score.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is well above the 25-tool threshold for over-scoping, making the set heavy for an agent to navigate. While the server spans many domains, several tools like generate_llms_txt, scan_dependency, and ai_visibility_check feel tangential to the core news/research purpose and would be better split into separate servers.

Completeness4/5

The core news/research domain is well covered: lookup, grounded verification, deep multi-source research, entity profiles, comparisons, subscriptions, and alert feeds are all present with no obvious dead ends. Minor gaps exist—such as no direct full-text article retrieval or a dedicated free-text news search beyond latest_news filters—but agents can work around them.

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