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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

This is a strong behavioral disclosure. It explains that the matcher works by keyword/token overlap, that `compatibility_warning` can be non-empty even when pairs are returned, that fees are not modeled, that spread values are gross rather than net tradeable edge, that unknown-type legs are never paired, and that `temporal_alignment` null means 'could not be computed,' not aligned. All of this goes well beyond the read-only/idempotent annotations and contradicts nothing.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long, but the tool is genuinely complex and the length is mostly earned by covering modes, response fields, safety codes, and caveats. The core action is front-loaded in the first sentence, and the two-mode structure is clearly labeled. It loses a point for some redundancy and a wall-of-text presentation; tighter sectioning would improve skimmability without losing information.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description carries full responsibility for explaining the response, and it does so thoroughly: leg-by-leg prices, `top_spreads_pp`, compatibility codes, per-entry flags, skipped-leg counters, fees note, and temporal alignment semantics. It also gives real-world calibration by warning that pre-mapped topics are not automatically tradeable. Nothing an agent needs to invoke the tool and interpret its results is missing.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although the input schema already describes all three parameters (100% coverage), the description adds meaning beyond the schema: it clarifies that `topic` is a pre-mapped macro shortcut, that the explicit parameters override the topic-mapped side, and that both modes run the identical token-overlap matcher. It also lists the exact valid topics and gives examples, so an agent can confidently select and combine parameters.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific statement of what the tool computes: 'Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question.' It also names the two operational modes (`topic` and explicit ticker/slug pairing), which makes the tool's scope concrete and distinguishes it from single-venue or pure-arbitrage siblings, even though no explicit sibling alternative is named.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives clear when-to-use context: you can use pre-mapped topic shortcuts or explicit `kalshi_event_ticker` + `polymarket_event_slug` pairings, and it explains what happens in each mode. It also cautions that 'most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.' However, it does not explicitly contrast this tool with nearby siblings like `polymarket_arbitrage` or `polymarket_edges`, so the decision boundary against alternatives is implied rather than fully explicit.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools have heavily overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded are near-duplicates (beta is currently identical), and the five Polymarket tools (arbitrage, edges, edge_tracker, fill_risk, kalshi_spread) require careful reading to distinguish. Additionally, entity_profile, compare_entities, and recent_changes all handle company data, and ai_visibility_check vs scan_competitor_ai_presence are clearly paired. The detailed descriptions help, but an agent will frequently misselect among these clusters.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names are lowercase with underscores, so the style is internally consistent. However, the pattern is mixed: many use verb_noun (get_positions, list_subscriptions, resolve_entity) but several are noun-first or noun-only (entity_profile, polymarket_edges, pipeworx_trending, bet_research). There's no strong verb/noun convention across the set, making the naming pattern less predictable than it could be.

Tool Count2/5

With 34 tools, the set exceeds the 16–25 'heavy' range and sits in the 'too many' band. The server name suggests a focused satellite-tracking service, yet only 3 tools (get_positions, get_visual_passes, whats_above) serve that purpose; the other 31 cover unrelated domains like data research, prediction markets, memory, and subscriptions. Even as a general-purpose research platform, the count feels bloated and unfocused.

Completeness3/5

The tool surface is broad, covering satellite tracking, data research, prediction markets, subscriptions, and memory, and within each cluster the main operations exist (e.g., subscription lifecycle, edge analysis + fill risk). However, the scattered scope creates gaps: there's no direct raw-data fetch tool (everything goes through ask_pipeworx), no general web search, and the presence of unrelated utilities (generate_llms_txt, scan_dependency) suggests the domain boundaries are unclear. For its stated satellite purpose, the satellite tools are thin (no TLE, no catalog, no detailed orbit info).