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N2yo

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true and idempotentHint=true, but the description adds substantial behavioral context: cached 1h at the KV level, slippage handling, Kelly caps, model-specific details (e.g., per-sport α coefficients), diagnostics for empty segments, and the Fed note. This goes well beyond the annotations and provides deep transparency into how the tool behaves.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long, but it is densely packed with unique information—model families, coefficients, caveats, diagnostics—and every sentence contributes. It is front-loaded with the purpose statement, though the single-paragraph structure could be improved with bullet points or clearer sectioning. Given the tool's complexity, the length is appropriate and not wasteful.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With 9 parameters, no output schema, and high complexity, the description thoroughly covers the response structure (by_segment, fed_candidates, _diagnostics), model families, limitations (Fed signal unreliability), and practical knobs. Agents can fully anticipate what the tool returns and why segments might be empty, making the description complete for its complexity level.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The schema has 100% parameter description coverage, so the structured fields already explain each parameter. The description adds value by grouping knobs (e.g., 'TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS') and explaining nuanced behaviors like how min_partition_leg_kelly applies to basket trades when parent-level Kelly is zero. This additional semantic context justifies a score above the baseline of 3.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's function: 'Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price.' It provides a specific verb (scan/return), resource (Polymarket markets), and differentiates itself from siblings by emphasizing Pipeworx data and three model families. The use case 'what should I bet on today' further clarifies the intended purpose.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly states the use case: 'Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets.' It also explains tradeable-edge knobs and the fed-note caveat, providing clear context for when to use the tool. However, it does not explicitly name alternatives or exclusion criteria, so it falls short of a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools have heavily overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded are near-duplicates (beta is currently identical), and the five Polymarket tools (arbitrage, edges, edge_tracker, fill_risk, kalshi_spread) require careful reading to distinguish. Additionally, entity_profile, compare_entities, and recent_changes all handle company data, and ai_visibility_check vs scan_competitor_ai_presence are clearly paired. The detailed descriptions help, but an agent will frequently misselect among these clusters.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names are lowercase with underscores, so the style is internally consistent. However, the pattern is mixed: many use verb_noun (get_positions, list_subscriptions, resolve_entity) but several are noun-first or noun-only (entity_profile, polymarket_edges, pipeworx_trending, bet_research). There's no strong verb/noun convention across the set, making the naming pattern less predictable than it could be.

Tool Count2/5

With 34 tools, the set exceeds the 16–25 'heavy' range and sits in the 'too many' band. The server name suggests a focused satellite-tracking service, yet only 3 tools (get_positions, get_visual_passes, whats_above) serve that purpose; the other 31 cover unrelated domains like data research, prediction markets, memory, and subscriptions. Even as a general-purpose research platform, the count feels bloated and unfocused.

Completeness3/5

The tool surface is broad, covering satellite tracking, data research, prediction markets, subscriptions, and memory, and within each cluster the main operations exist (e.g., subscription lifecycle, edge analysis + fill risk). However, the scattered scope creates gaps: there's no direct raw-data fetch tool (everything goes through ask_pipeworx), no general web search, and the presence of unrelated utilities (generate_llms_txt, scan_dependency) suggests the domain boundaries are unclear. For its stated satellite purpose, the satellite tools are thin (no TLE, no catalog, no detailed orbit info).

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