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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already indicate read-only and idempotent behavior. The description adds rich context: checks include monotonicity, partition sums, Jaccard similarity, placeholder filtering, and fill checks against live CLOB depth. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is thorough and well-structured, but slightly verbose. Each sentence adds value, and the information density is high. Could be tightened without losing clarity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity and no output schema, the description covers all necessary aspects: invocation modes, logic, edge cases, response structure, and fill-check caveats. Enough for an agent to use correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Input schema has 100% description coverage for two parameters. The description adds value by explaining the behavioral difference between event and topic modes with examples, but schema already documents parameter meaning well.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It specifies three invocation modes (trending scan, event, topic) and distinguishes itself from siblings like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit guidance on when to use each mode (event recommended for specific markets, topic for cross-event scanning). Includes when not to trade (realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0) and references alternative tool for custom sizing (polymarket_fill_risk).

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The set contains several near-duplicate entry points (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded) plus a dense family of polymarket_* and chemical lookup tools whose boundaries are subtle. An agent can easily pick the wrong router variant, edge-scanning tool, or chemical search tool.

Naming Consistency3/5

Snake_case is used throughout, but naming style is mixed: some tools are verb-first (query, resolve_entity, validate_claim), some are noun/domain-first (entity_profile, recent_changes, polymarket_arbitrage), and the ask_pipeworx variants use suffixes instead of a consistent verb pattern. It is readable, but there is no predictable convention beyond snake_case.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is well past the comfortable range, and the count is especially hard to justify because they span unrelated domains: chemistry lookups, a Pipeworx data gateway, prediction-market analytics, memory, subscriptions, AI-visibility checks, and npm dependency scanning. Many of these have no obvious connection to the 'Mychem' name or to each other.

Completeness4/5

Within each contained workflow the surface is fairly complete: chemistry has search/fetch/metadata, Pipeworx has lookup/research/discovery/validation, subscriptions and memory both have lifecycle coverage, and the Polymarket family covers research, edge detection, persistence, and fill risk. Some minor gaps exist (no general web retrieval or execution/trading action), but agents can work around them.