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Mime

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • changedInput schema / examples
      Previous value: -[
-  {
-    "market_input": "will fed cut rates in june 2026"
-  },
-  {
-    "market_input": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
-  }
-]New value: +[
+  {
+    "market": "will-bitcoin-reach-100k-in-july-2026"
+  },
+  {
+    "market": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
+  }
+]
  2. First observed

TDQS

A4.5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint, idempotentHint, and destructiveHint. The description adds extensive behavioral details: market resolution/classification, fan-out logic, response shapes, resolver contract (confidence levels, alternatives), parent event extractor, news fallback handling, safety for low-confidence matches, closed markets, wide spreads, and resolution-rule risk. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is comprehensive but quite lengthy, with multiple paragraphs covering many specifics. While well-structured with sections (RESOLVER CONTRACT, PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR, etc.), it could be more concise without losing essential information. Some details (e.g., specific fan-out examples) are helpful but add to verbosity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given no output schema, the description thoroughly explains return shapes: analysis, evidence, market fields, resolver confidence, parent event, news fields, and safety mechanisms. It covers all relevant aspects an agent needs to understand and use the tool effectively, including edge cases (closed markets, wide spreads, resolution risks).

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, with descriptions for all three parameters. The description adds value beyond the schema: explaining that 'market' can be a slug, URL, or question text; detailing 'depth' enum values ('quick' vs 'thorough'); and clarifying when to set 'include_raw' to true. This enhances usability.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description states a specific verb ('Research') and resource ('Polymarket bet'), detailing the process of pulling Pipeworx data, classification, fan-out, and returning an evidence packet with comparison. It distinguishes itself from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage or polymarket_edges by its comprehensive research scope.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit usage contexts are provided: 'Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z".' The description also gives examples of when to use different parameters (e.g., include_raw). It does not explicitly state when not to use the tool, but the context is clear enough.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Several tools have overlapping purposes, such as the ask_pipeworx family (standard, beta, grounded) and the multiple Polymarket analysis tools (edges, arbitrage, fill_risk, edge_tracker, kalshi_spread, bet_research). The detailed descriptions help differentiate them, but an agent could still misselect between deep_research vs ask_pipeworx or polymarket_edges vs polymarket_arbitrage.

Naming Consistency3/5

Naming patterns are mixed: many tools use verb_noun (discover_tools, validate_claim, compare_entities), but others are noun_noun (entity_profile, polymarket_edges), single verbs (remember, recall, forget), or unusual forms (extension_for, search_within, ask_pipeworx). The polymarket_ prefix and ask_pipeworx family provide some consistency, but overall the style is not uniform.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools is a large number for the server's scope. While it covers many domains (data querying, entity research, Polymarket analysis, subscriptions, memory, utilities), there is redundancy: three ask_pipeworx variants and six Polymarket-specific tools inflate the count. Several tools could be merged or dropped without losing functionality, making the set feel heavier than necessary.

Completeness4/5

The toolset covers its core domains well: data querying (ask_pipeworx, deep_research), entity resolution (resolve_entity, entity_profile, compare_entities), Polymarket analysis (research, arbitrage, risk, edges, tracking, cross-venue), subscriptions (subscribe/unsubscribe/list/alerts), memory (remember/recall/forget), and utilities (MIME lookup, dependency scan). Minor gaps exist, such as no direct fetch tool for pipeworx:// citation URIs and no update operation for subscriptions, but these are not critical.

Resources