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Glama

Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description goes far beyond the annotations, disclosing detailed internal logic: three model families with formulas, placeholder-slug filters, Kelly caps (0.25), slippage handling, 24h-move warnings, diagnostics structure, and a limitation note (Fed signal unreliable). It also explains why segments can be empty and how filtering gates work. This is exemplary behavioral transparency.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense and long, but every sentence carries substantive information. It is organized with labeled segments and parenthetical details, but the wall-of-text format could benefit from more visual structure (e.g., headers, bullet points). Given the tool's complexity, the length is justified, though slightly more concision would improve readability.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description fully compensates by detailing the top-level response structure (by_segment, fed_candidates, _diagnostics), explaining empty-segment diagnostics, and covering caching behavior. It also documents all major behavioral aspects, including data sources and limitations, making the tool's context complete for an agent.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The schema already describes all 9 parameters (100% coverage), so the baseline is 3. The description adds significant semantic value by defining key concepts like edge_pp_net, explaining that min_kelly does not apply to partition_overround by design, and clarifying the distinct role of min_partition_leg_kelly. It also provides example thresholds for min_liquidity and max_spread_pp, enhancing understanding beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description is exceptionally clear: 'Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price.' It further specifies the intended use case ('what should I bet on today') and differentiates from siblings by emphasizing its discovery function without paging hundreds of markets, unlike arbitrage or risk-specific tools.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides strong contextual guidance: it states the tool is 'Built for "what should I bet on today"' and explains when it is appropriate (e.g., discovering opportunities, with caching noted). It also mentions an exclusion (Fed bets surface but are excluded from ranking) and offers knob adjustments. However, it does not explicitly name alternative tools for different use cases or say 'use X instead', so it lacks explicit exclusions/alternatives.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools have heavily overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded are variants of the same router, and the six polymarket_* tools cover overlapping arbitrage/edge analysis territory. ai_visibility_check vs scan_competitor_ai_presence and discover_tools vs suggest_questions add further boundary ambiguity. While descriptions try to differentiate, an agent could easily misselect among these clusters.

Naming Consistency3/5

Most names are readable snake_case, but there is no consistent verb_noun pattern: verbs vary (ask, get, list, scan, search, suggest, validate, generate, compare) and several tools are named by product prefix (pipeworx_*, polymarket_*) rather than by action. The pattern is predictable within clusters but inconsistent across the set.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools is heavy for the server's stated name, 'Metals Api', which only has two metals-related tools (get_historical, get_latest). Even as a general data-research server, the surface is bloated with memory utilities, subscription management, feedback, trending, and unrelated AI-visibility scanning. The scope mismatch makes the count feel unjustified.

Completeness3/5

The core metals domain is thin: latest and single-date historical prices exist, but there is no time-series range query, no list of supported metals, and no explicit currency conversion endpoint. The broader data-research/subscription/memory surface is relatively complete, but it is disconnected from the server's apparent purpose, leaving notable gaps for a metals-focused agent.