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Mempool Space

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already indicate read-only, open-world, idempotent, and non-destructive behavior. The description greatly expands on this by detailing model families (e.g., crypto_price, news_momentum), caching (1h at KV level), diagnostics, and the Fed data note, providing comprehensive behavioral context beyond annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is extremely long and detailed, reading like a mini-specification. While well-structured with sections and lists, it may be too verbose for an agent to quickly parse. Some details (e.g., exact model formulas) could be summarized for brevity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given 9 parameters, no output schema, and complex internal logic, the description covers return structure (by_segment, fed_candidates, diagnostics), filter knobs, and caching. It provides enough information for an agent to understand and safely invoke the tool, making it nearly complete.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, and the description adds significant value for each parameter, such as explaining min_kelly filters small opportunities, slippage_pp includes Polymarket fee context, and min_partition_leg_kelly addresses partition arb nuances. This goes far beyond schema descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: scanning Polymarket markets for opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. It uses specific verbs ('scan', 'return') and resources ('Polymarket markets', 'Pipeworx data'), and distinguishes itself from siblings like 'polymarket_arbitrage' by focusing on Pipeworx disagreement.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description frames the tool for 'what should I bet on today' and mentions discovering opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. It details filter knobs but lacks explicit guidance on when not to use it versus sibling tools, though the context implies it's the primary edge detection tool.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.1/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The set mixes two unrelated domains — Bitcoin mempool explorer tools and the much larger Pipeworx data-query platform — and within the Pipeworx half several tools route to the same 5,743-tool catalog (ask_pipeworx, deep_research, discover_tools, suggest_questions). ask_pipeworx_beta is currently an exact behavioral duplicate of ask_pipeworx, and the polymarket_* family has fuzzy boundaries (arbitrage vs edges vs fill_risk, with fill-checking living in both polymarket_arbitrage and polymarket_fill_risk), so an agent must read long descriptions to avoid misselection.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names use snake_case and there are recognizable sub-families (get_* Bitcoin lookups, ask_pipeworx_*, polymarket_*), but conventions are mixed across the whole set: bare-noun state tools (block_height, hashrate, mempool_stats, mining_pools) sit beside verb_noun actions (get_block, list_subscriptions), and prefix placement is inconsistent (ask_pipeworx vs pipeworx_trending/pipeworx_feedback). The naming is readable but not predictable enough to guess a tool's name from its function.

Tool Count2/5

41 tools is well past the 25+ threshold for a coherent server, and the count is inflated by bundling two unrelated products under a server named after only the smaller half (~10 Bitcoin tools vs ~31 Pipeworx tools). Many Pipeworx tools are convenience wrappers around one universal router, adding surface area without adding genuinely new capabilities.

Completeness3/5

Each half is internally workable: the Bitcoin side covers blocks, transactions, addresses, fees, hashrate, and pools, while the Pipeworx side provides broad query, research, subscription, and memory lifecycles. However, there are notable gaps relative to each domain (no block-list/fee-history endpoints on the explorer side; no direct per-source CRUD on the data side), and no single coherent domain is fully served because the server's stated identity matches only a fraction of its tools.

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