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Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description extensively discloses behavioral traits beyond annotations: fan-out logic, response shapes, resolver contract (match confidence, alternatives), parent_event extractor, news fallback fields, safety mechanisms (low_confidence, market_closed), wide-spread warnings, and resolution-rule risk. No contradiction with annotations (readOnlyHint is fine as it's querying data).

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is front-loaded with the main purpose and is very informative, but it is lengthy with many examples and edge cases. While thorough, it could be more concise for agent consumption. Every sentence is justified, but the sheer length impacts conciseness slightly.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity, the description is highly complete. It covers input, behavior, response shapes, safety, and edge cases without an output schema. It provides enough detail for an agent to understand functionality, guarantees, and limitations.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%. The description adds value by explaining input formats for 'market' (slug, URL, question text), enum values for 'depth' (quick/thorough with default), and usage guidance for 'include_raw' (when to set true for full payloads). This goes beyond the schema's brief descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool researches a Polymarket bet by pulling Pipeworx data in one call. It specifies input types (slug, URL, question text) and outputs (evidence packet + comparison). It distinguishes from siblings like polymarket_arbitrage and polymarket_edges through its focus on general bet research.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly says 'Use for should I bet on X, what does the data say about Y, or is there edge in Z.' It provides clear context but does not explicitly state when not to use or name alternative tools. Sibling tools imply alternatives, but explicit exclusions are missing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.1/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The set mixes two unrelated domains — Bitcoin mempool explorer tools and the much larger Pipeworx data-query platform — and within the Pipeworx half several tools route to the same 5,743-tool catalog (ask_pipeworx, deep_research, discover_tools, suggest_questions). ask_pipeworx_beta is currently an exact behavioral duplicate of ask_pipeworx, and the polymarket_* family has fuzzy boundaries (arbitrage vs edges vs fill_risk, with fill-checking living in both polymarket_arbitrage and polymarket_fill_risk), so an agent must read long descriptions to avoid misselection.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names use snake_case and there are recognizable sub-families (get_* Bitcoin lookups, ask_pipeworx_*, polymarket_*), but conventions are mixed across the whole set: bare-noun state tools (block_height, hashrate, mempool_stats, mining_pools) sit beside verb_noun actions (get_block, list_subscriptions), and prefix placement is inconsistent (ask_pipeworx vs pipeworx_trending/pipeworx_feedback). The naming is readable but not predictable enough to guess a tool's name from its function.

Tool Count2/5

41 tools is well past the 25+ threshold for a coherent server, and the count is inflated by bundling two unrelated products under a server named after only the smaller half (~10 Bitcoin tools vs ~31 Pipeworx tools). Many Pipeworx tools are convenience wrappers around one universal router, adding surface area without adding genuinely new capabilities.

Completeness3/5

Each half is internally workable: the Bitcoin side covers blocks, transactions, addresses, fees, hashrate, and pools, while the Pipeworx side provides broad query, research, subscription, and memory lifecycles. However, there are notable gaps relative to each domain (no block-list/fee-history endpoints on the explorer side; no direct per-source CRUD on the data side), and no single coherent domain is fully served because the server's stated identity matches only a fraction of its tools.