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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnly/openWorld/idempotent, but the description adds deep behavioral context: placeholder filtering, similarity thresholds, null signals, fill check pricing, and the 'do not trade' rule. This far exceeds the annotation coverage and provides actionable constraints on result interpretation.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured, with each section (modes, semantic anchor, partition filter, fill check) earning its place. It is front-loaded with the core purpose and mode selection. Slightly verbose, but given the tool's complexity, this is appropriate; only minor redundancy exists (e.g., repeating 'call with no args' context).

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite no output schema, the response format is fully described (opportunities[] fields, partition_check fields). It covers all operational details: modes, filters, edge cases, and when to avoid trading. Completeness is high for a tool with two optional params and a complex algorithmic behavior.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, yet the description enriches both params with concrete examples (event slugs, topic seed questions) and clarifies behavior ('Full Polymarket URLs also accepted'). It explains that event and topic are mutually exclusive modes with distinct scanning strategies, adding value beyond the schema descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb+resource+method: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes this from siblings like polymarket_edges (which likely focuses on edges) and polymarket_fill_risk (custom sizing), by focusing on arbitrage detection mechanics.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidance is given: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan...' then distinguishes event vs topic modes with recommendations ('event (recommended for a specific market)' and 'topic (for cross-event scanning)'). It even provides an alternative tool ('For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk') and a caution against trading when realizable edge is ≤0, making the usage context exceptionally clear.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.5/5.0
Disambiguation4/5

Most tools have distinct purposes, but there is some overlap among ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research, all of which query the Pipeworx database with different levels of structure. The detailed descriptions help differentiate them, but the overlap is notable.

Naming Consistency4/5

All tool names use snake_case consistently, which is good. However, the naming conventions vary: some are descriptive phrases (e.g., ai_visibility_check), others are verb_noun (e.g., list_subscriptions), and some are compound nouns (e.g., entity_profile). Lack of a single pattern reduces consistency slightly.

Tool Count3/5

34 tools is on the higher side for a single server, but it may be justified given the broad scope of Pipeworx data sources. However, the server name 'Mast Nasa' implies a focus on astronomy, yet only a few tools relate to that domain, making the count feel inflated and unfocused.

Completeness3/5

The tool set is comprehensive for the Pipeworx data platform, covering querying, grounding, entity resolution, comparison, subscriptions, and more. However, for the implied NASA/Mast domain, the surface is severely incomplete with only four astronomy-specific tools, leaving obvious gaps.