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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the readOnly/openWorld/idempotent annotations, the description reveals rich behavioral detail: the 3pp threshold for signals, placeholder filtering (>20% yields null), Jaccard similarity anchor, and the fill check against live CLOB depth. This gives the agent a strong sense of what happens internally and when not to act.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but every sentence earns its place, covering modes, filters, response shape, and trade advisories. It is front-loaded with the core purpose and uses clear labels (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) to structure complex information without being redundant.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given no output schema, the description fully compensates by describing the response structure (opportunities[], partition_check fields). It also explains failure modes like skipped_low_similarity and placeholders_filtered, making the tool's behavior comprehensive for an agent to use correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although schema coverage is 100%, the description significantly enriches parameter meaning: it explains that 'event' accepts slugs or full URLs, defines 'topic' as a seed question, and describes the resulting behavior (monotonicity check, partition check). The no-args mode is also covered, which the schema omits entirely.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb and resource: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes itself from siblings like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk by focusing on arbitrage and explicitly naming the fill-risk tool for custom sizing.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit when-to-use guidance: no args for trending_scan, 'event' for a specific market, 'topic' for cross-event scanning, and even says 'For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.' It also warns against trading when realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0, which is a clear exclusion condition.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools overlap in purpose (e.g., multiple Polymarket analysis tools, multiple AI visibility tools, ask_pipeworx vs deep_research). Agents will have difficulty choosing the correct tool without deep understanding of subtle differences.

Naming Consistency2/5

Tool names use a mix of styles (snake_case, descriptive phrases) without a consistent verb_noun pattern. For example, 'ask_pipeworx' and 'bet_research' have different naming conventions. This inconsistency makes it harder for agents to predict tool names.

Tool Count2/5

32 tools is on the high side for a single server. Many tools could be merged (e.g., multiple polymarket tools). The count feels excessive for the scope, causing cognitive load and potential selection errors.

Completeness3/5

The tool set covers a wide range of domains (prediction markets, company data, fact-checking, etc.) but has notable gaps (e.g., limited entity types for company/drug only). Redundancy in some areas makes the set feel bloated rather than complete.

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