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Glama

Markdown

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • changedInput schema / examples
      Previous value: -[
-  {
-    "market_input": "will fed cut rates in june 2026"
-  },
-  {
-    "market_input": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
-  }
-]New value: +[
+  {
+    "market": "will-bitcoin-reach-100k-in-july-2026"
+  },
+  {
+    "market": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
+  }
+]
  2. First observed

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Even with annotations declaring readOnly/openWorld/idempotent/non-destructive, the description adds substantial behavioral disclosure: low-confidence short-circuit status, closed-market handling, wide-spread illiquidity signaling, news fallback fields, and cancellation-rule risk with EV impact. This far exceeds what annotations convey and directly informs agent decision-making.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Although long, the description is methodically structured with capitalized sections (CLASSIFIERS, FAN-OUT EXAMPLES, RESPONSE SHAPES, RESOLVER CONTRACT, etc.) and front-loaded purpose. Every sentence carries actionable information for tool selection and result interpretation; there is no filler or repetition.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a complex tool with no output schema, the description is remarkably complete. It covers resolution confidence, parent-event partitions, news fallback behavior, safety blocking, market-closed handling, illiquidity warnings, and cancellation-rule risk. An agent can correctly anticipate response shapes and edge cases without an output schema.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The input schema already covers all three parameters with descriptions, providing a baseline of 3. The description enriches this with concrete examples for the market parameter (slug, URL, question text), fan-out examples tied to specific values (e.g., BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews), and practical guidance on include_raw (recommended false, response size trade-offs). This adds meaning beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb+resource: "Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call." It clearly distinguishes itself from siblings by emphasizing one-call fan-out to category-specific data packs and market-vs-model comparison, which aligns with neither generic tools like deep_research nor specialized sibling tools like polymarket_edges.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit usage triggers are given: "Use for 'should I bet on X', 'what does the data say about Y', or 'is there edge in Z'." This provides clear context for when to invoke. It does not explicitly name alternatives or exclusion cases, but the detailed fan-out and resolver contract imply how it differs from sibling tools, so it stops short of a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tool clusters are hard to distinguish: the four ask_pipeworx variants overlap heavily (beta currently behaves identically to ask_pipeworx, and grounded shares routing), and the half-dozen prediction-market tools (bet_research, polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_fill_risk, polymarket_kalshi_spread) have fuzzy boundaries. Memory and markdown utilities are clear, but the overlapping data-query and prediction-market clusters create real misselection risk.

Naming Consistency4/5

Names are almost uniformly snake_case and mostly verb-first (ask_, compare_, extract_, scan_, validate_, remember, forget), which is predictable. Minor deviations like entity_profile, recent_changes, and polymarket_edges are noun-first but still follow the same lowercase_snake pattern, so no chaotic mixing of conventions exists.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is heavy for a server seemingly named 'Markdown', especially when the majority are actually Pipeworx data-research and prediction-market tools. Several tools duplicate or wrap each other (ask_pipeworx_beta, scan_competitor_ai_presence, bet_research et al.), so the count feels bloated; it is not as extreme as 50+, but it exceeds a well-scoped set.

Completeness4/5

Within the actual dominant domain — structured data research plus prediction markets — the surface is broad: routing queries, grounded answers, deep research, entity profiles, comparisons, resolution, claim validation, semantic search, discoverability, subscriptions/alerts, and memory are all covered. Minor gaps exist (e.g. no direct pipeworx:// citation-fetch tool, and markdown support is thin), but the core workflows have no dead ends.

Resources