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Glama

Mapbox

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • removedInput schema / anyOf
      [
  {
    "required": [
      "event"
    ]
  },
  {
    "required": [
      "topic"
    ]
  }
]
  2. Changed3 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / anyOf
      [
  {
    "required": [
      "event"
    ]
  },
  {
    "required": [
      "topic"
    ]
  }
]
    • changedInput schema / properties / event / description
      Before
      "Single-event mode: Polymarket event slug (e.g. \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\") or full URL."
      After
      "Single-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like \"fed-decision-may-2026\" or \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted."
    • changedInput schema / properties / topic / description
      Before
      "Cross-event mode: a topic or seed question. Tool searches Polymarket for related markets across separate events and checks monotonicity across them. E.g. \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\"."
      After
      "Cross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like \"Fed rate decision\" or \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them."
  3. First observed

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the readOnlyHint annotations, the description discloses detailed behaviors: the semantic anchor requires ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity, partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return a null arb signal, and the fill check 'prices it against live CLOB depth' with guidance not to trade if realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0. It also reveals that deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but highly structured with labeled sections for modes, semantic anchor, partition filter, response, and fill check. Every sentence adds specific information without redundancy, and the main purpose is front-loaded in the first sentence. The density is justified for the tool's complexity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description fully specifies the response shape, including opportunities[] fields and partition_check fields. It covers edge cases like low similarity, placeholder filters, and fill check results, making it complete for the tool's complexity.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although the schema already documents the two parameters, the description adds meaningful context: event accepts slugs or URLs and 'walks child markets', while topic is for cross-event scanning and 'searches related events across the platform'. It provides concrete examples like 'fed-decision-may-2026' and explains the trade-off between modes, enriching the schema beyond field names.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks', clearly identifying the tool's purpose with a specific verb and resource. It distinguishes itself from sibling tools by focusing on arbitrage detection versus edge tracking or fill risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives explicit instructions for when to use each mode: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan', 'event (recommended for a specific market)', and 'topic (for cross-event scanning)'. It also directs users to 'use polymarket_fill_risk' for custom sizing, naming an alternative tool for a different need.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools have overlapping purposes (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, validate_claim) and several tools serve similar data-retrieval functions, making it difficult for an agent to distinguish which to use.

Naming Consistency4/5

Tool names mostly follow a consistent verb_noun pattern (e.g., geocode_forward, generate_llms_txt, resolve_entity). A few less descriptive names (forget, recall) exist but overall naming is predictable.

Tool Count2/5

38 tools is far too many for a server branded as 'Mapbox'. Only about 8 tools directly relate to map/geospatial functionality; the rest are unrelated (Pipeworx data, Polymarket, memory). The scope is dramatically overextended.

Completeness2/5

The Mapbox-specific tools lack coverage of major features like style management, tilesets, or data upload. The non-Mapbox tools cover their domains moderately, but the server's overall completeness for its named purpose (Mapbox) is severely lacking.

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