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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.2/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations indicate read-only, idempotent, non-destructive. Description adds substantial behavioral context: default scan scope (top 200 markets), semantic anchor (Jaccard similarity >=0.30), partition filter (placeholder slugs), fill check against CLOB depth, and realizable edge threshold. No contradiction.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Well-structured with labeled sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) and front-loaded main functionality. However, it is verbose and contains some redundant phrasing that could be trimmed without losing meaning.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Very thorough despite no output schema. Describes response format (opportunities[] with fields, partition_check in event mode), default behavior, edge case handling (placeholders, similarity), and fill check conditions. Covers all essential aspects for an agent to use the tool correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, baseline 3. Description adds meaning beyond schema: explains event accepts full URLs, topic is a seed question, and describes the scanning behavior for each. This elevates value above baseline.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states it finds arbitrage opportunities via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks, with two distinct modes (event and topic). It does not explicitly differentiate from sibling tools like polymarket_edges, but the purpose is specific enough.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit guidance on when to use each mode: no args for trending scan, event for single-event partition check, topic for cross-event scan. Includes fill check warning on when not to trade. Lacks explicit when-not-to-use overall, but recommendations are clear.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have heavily overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded share the same router, with the beta variant currently identical to stable. The five polymarket_* tools plus bet_research also blur boundaries, and discover_tools/suggest_questions both serve discovery. Detailed descriptions help, but an agent could easily select the wrong tool.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names use lower_snake_case and many follow a clear verb_noun pattern (resolve_entity, validate_claim, generate_llms_txt). However, there are notable deviations: entity_profile, pipeworx_feedback, polymarket_edges, recent_changes, and bet_research lead with nouns or adjectives. The style is readable and predictable in clusters, but not uniform.

Tool Count2/5

32 tools is well above the 25+ threshold for 'too many', and the server name Macvendors suggests a narrow MAC-lookup service, yet most tools belong to a much broader Pipeworx data/prediction-market platform. Several tools are near-duplicates or micro-variants (three ask_pipeworx versions, six polymarket tools). The set would be more appropriately split or heavily consolidated.

Completeness4/5

Within the actual broad research platform domain, the surface is fairly complete: discovery, routing, grounded answers, entity profiles, comparisons, recent changes, claim validation, semantic search, prediction-market analysis, subscriptions, memory, and feedback are all covered. Minor gaps exist, such as no subscription update tool and no batch MAC lookup, but agents can generally complete workflows without dead ends.