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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint as true and destructiveHint as false. The description adds significant behavioral context beyond annotations: semantic anchor with Jaccard similarity ≥0.30, partition filter dropping placeholder slugs, fill check pricing against live CLOB depth, and threshold for actionable signals (gap >3pp). No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is somewhat lengthy but well-organized with labeled sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK). It front-loads the core functionality and every sentence adds value. Could be slightly more condensed, but structure aids readability.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

No output schema, so description fully explains return structure: opportunities array with fields (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context) and partition_check in event mode. It also covers fill check edge case and when not to trade. Complete for a complex arbitrage detection tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Input schema has 100% description coverage, defining both parameters clearly. The description adds valuable extra context: event mode accepts full Polymarket URLs, topic mode accepts seed questions, and explains what each parameter triggers (single-event vs cross-event scan). One point off because schema already covers basics well.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description explicitly states 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks' and clearly distinguishes three modes (no args for trending scan, event for specific market, topic for cross-event scan). It differentiates from sibling tools like polymarket_edges, polymarket_edge_tracker, and polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

It provides explicit when-to-use guidance: call with NO args for trending scan, event for a specific market (recommended), topic for cross-event scanning. It explains cross-event mode catches patterns missed by single-event mode. It also advises against trading when realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 and directs custom sizing to polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tool clusters have unclear boundaries. `ask_pipeworx_beta` is explicitly described as currently identical to `ask_pipeworx`, `discover_tools` overlaps with `suggest_questions`, and the six Polymarket tools (`bet_research`, `polymarket_edges`, `polymarket_arbitrage`, etc.) blur together for opportunity-finding. An agent would struggle to pick the right tool without reading every description carefully.

Naming Consistency4/5

Naming is overwhelmingly consistent snake_case with a verb_noun or noun pattern (`ask_pipeworx`, `list_subscriptions`, `validate_claim`, `recent_changes`). The `polymarket_*` and `ask_pipeworx_*` families follow clear conventions. Minor deviations like `bet_research`, `entity_profile`, and `landprice_points` being noun-first are still readable and predictable.

Tool Count2/5

32 tools is heavy for a server named 'Landprice' when exactly one tool (`landprice_points`) actually concerns land prices. The vast majority of tools constitute an unrelated general-purpose data research and prediction-market platform, making the count feel bloated and scattershot relative to the server's stated purpose.

Completeness3/5

For the actual broad scope revealed by the tools — structured data lookup, grounded verification, deep research, entity resolution, comparison, monitoring, and memory — the surface is reasonably complete with no obvious dead ends. However, for the 'Landprice' domain implied by the server name, coverage is nearly absent: only Japan is covered, with no other countries, address search, or property-level data.