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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, destructiveHint. The description adds rich behavioral context: default trending scan behavior, partition check mechanics, Jaccard similarity filter, placeholder filter, fill check against live depth. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is comprehensive but slightly verbose. It is front-loaded with the main purpose and modes, then details each aspect. Every sentence adds value, but could be more tightly edited without losing information.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given no output schema, the description adequately describes the response structure (opportunities, partition_check, fill_check) and covers key details like default behavior, filter logic, and trade signals. It provides sufficient context for an AI agent to use the tool correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with parameter descriptions. The description adds significant value beyond schema: explains the purpose of each parameter, provides usage examples (event slugs, topic questions), and clarifies the difference between single-event and cross-event modes.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: finding arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes two distinct modes (event and topic) and differentiates from sibling tools like polymarket_edges by specifying its unique arbitrage logic.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit when-to-use guidance: recommends event mode for a specific market, topic mode for cross-event scanning. Also advises when not to trade (realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0) and directs to polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, providing clear exclusion criteria.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools overlap heavily: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta (explicitly identical when no routing candidate is active), ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, and validate_claim all answer factual questions through the same underlying router. The prediction-market cluster (polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, bet_research, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_fill_risk, polymarket_kalshi_spread) has substantial purpose overlap that requires reading long descriptions to disambiguate.

Naming Consistency3/5

Mostly snake_case, and the pipeworx_/polymarket_/ask_ prefixes give some structure, but conventions are mixed: some tools are verb_noun (list_municipalities, get_data), some are bare verbs (forget, recall, remember), and some are noun phrases (entity_profile, deep_research, bet_research, recent_changes). The inconsistent prefixing across meta-tools (ask_, deep_, entity_, scan_, validate_) makes the surface feel less predictable than it could be.

Tool Count2/5

35 tools is on the heavy side, but the bigger problem is that the server name 'Kolada Se' matches only 4 tools (search_kpi, list_municipalities, list_org_units, get_data), while the other 31 tools belong to unrelated domains (Pipeworx data routing, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions, AI visibility). This is a severe scope mismatch that makes the count feel bloated and unfocused.

Completeness3/5

For the Kolada domain named by the server, the surface is minimal: you can search KPIs, list municipalities, list org units, and fetch single-KPI data, but there is no multi-year bulk fetch, cross-municipality comparison, or unit-level data retrieval. The broader Pipeworx/prediction-market surface is fairly feature-complete, but it is not what the server name implies, so the set as a whole leaves the apparent domain thinly covered.