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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already carry readOnlyHint=true, openWorldHint=true, idempotentHint=true, destructiveHint=false, so the safety profile is covered. The description richly exceeds that baseline by disclosing: fees are not modeled (spreads are gross, not net tradeable edge), temporal_alignment null does NOT mean aligned, compatibility_codes can be non-empty even with matched_pairs>0, and unknown metric_type/match_subtype legs are never paired. No annotation contradiction.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long, but every block earns its place given the tool's genuine complexity. It is well-structured with visible labels (TWO MODES, RESPONSE, SAFETY FIELDS) and the core purpose is front-loaded before the machinery. It loses one point for density — the volume of codes and caveats in a single prose wall requires careful reading — but nothing is redundant.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a tool with no output schema, the description fully compensates: it details the response shape (leg-by-leg prices, top_spreads_pp, safety fields), enumerates every compatibility code, explains the skipped/lop_confidence_pairs mechanics, and closes with the gross-vs-net fee caveat. Given three modes, nested safety fields, and temporal-alignment semantics, nothing an agent needs to call it correctly is missing.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so baseline is 3, but the description adds substantial semantics beyond it: it enumerates all 10 topic macro values and their meaning, explains that explicit kalshi_event_ticker/polymarket_event_slug OVERRIDE the topic-mapped side, and states that both parameter paths execute the identical token-overlap matcher with identical disclosures. This interaction logic is not present in the schema itself.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a precise statement of scope: 'Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question.' A single sentence captures verb (compute/compare spread), resource (Kalshi vs Polymarket events), and the distinguishing constraint (same resolving question, cross-venue). This cleanly separates it from single-venue siblings like polymarket_arbitrage and polymarket_edges.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description clearly documents TWO MODES with explicit selection criteria: topic shortcuts for pre-mapped macros, and explicit ticker/slug for custom pairings, noting both run the identical matcher. It also gives practical guidance that most pre-mapped topics return compatibility warnings and that pre-mapped ≠ tradeable. It does not explicitly name sibling alternatives or state when NOT to use this in favor of another tool, which keeps it just below a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.5/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools have overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, and validate_claim all answer research questions, and the Kitsu-specific tools are mixed with unrelated Polymarket, memory, and utility tools. Despite detailed descriptions, the boundaries between many tools are unclear.

Naming Consistency2/5

The server mixes single-word nouns (anime, manga, categories), verb_noun pairs (search_anime, top_anime), verb phrases (ask_pipeworx, generate_llms_txt), and domain-prefixed families (polymarket_*, pipeworx_*) with no consistent overall convention. While some sub-families are internally consistent, the set as a whole lacks a predictable pattern.

Tool Count2/5

38 tools is excessive for a server ostensibly about Kitsu anime/manga, with only 7 tools actually serving that domain. The rest are unrelated (Pipeworx research, Polymarket trading, memory, subscriptions), making the set bloated and unfocused for its stated purpose.

Completeness2/5

The Kitsu domain lacks common operations like filtered search, character/episode data, or user lists. Meanwhile, the Pipeworx/prediction-market tools form an arbitrary subset of their domains (e.g., no general Kalshi data, no SEC full-text search), so the overall surface is incomplete for any single purpose.