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Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.4/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, and destructiveHint false. The description adds extensive behavioral context beyond these: response segmentation (by_segment), edge calculation details (net of slippage, Kelly caps, favorite-longshot bias correction), a 24h-move warning, caching behavior ('Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs'), and diagnostics for empty segments. This far exceeds the baseline annotation coverage.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness2/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is one massive, uninterrupted paragraph with no section breaks, bullet points, or headings. It is information-dense but not concise or well-structured. While every sentence contains relevant detail, the lack of organization makes it harder to scan quickly. This is a clear structural deficiency, warranting a low score.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a tool with 9 parameters, no output schema, and high complexity, the description is exceptionally complete. It explains the three model families, response top-level fields, diagnostics, caching, parameter interdependencies, and even why fed candidates are excluded. It anticipates why segments might be empty and how to debug them. The description fully compensates for the absence of an output schema.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so baseline is 3. The description adds extra semantics beyond the schema, such as explaining the purpose of tradeable-edge knobs (min_liquidity/max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable) and the nuance of min_partition_leg_kelly (applies per-leg inside partitions since parent-level kelly is always 0). It also clarifies that min_kelly is half-Kelly and that edge is evaluated net of slippage, which adds value beyond the raw parameter descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's function: 'Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price.' It uses a specific verb ('scan'), names the resource (Polymarket markets), and describes the output (opportunities). It also distinguishes itself from siblings by emphasizing 'agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets,' which positions it as a high-level discovery tool rather than a niche arbitrage scanner.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides clear context for when to use the tool: 'Built for "what should I bet on today"' and explains the filtering knobs for tradeable edges. However, it does not explicitly mention when NOT to use it or name sibling alternatives. It gives clear context but lacks explicit exclusions, which fits the 'clear context, no exclusions' level.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.5/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools occupy the same entry-point role (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, deep_research, discover_tools, suggest_questions), and ask_pipeworx_beta is explicitly identical to ask_pipeworx right now. The Polymarket family is carefully described but still has heavily overlapping discovery/edge surfaces. Only validate_json_schema is unambiguous, and it has no related siblings to clarify its position.

Naming Consistency2/5

Tool names mix verb-first forms (discover_tools, generate_llms_txt, resolve_entity), noun-first forms (entity_profile, pipeworx_feedback), and bare verbs (remember, recall, forget). Prefix conventions are inconsistent—ask_pipeworx, pipeworx_feedback, polymarket_edges, recent_changes—and almost none of the names reflect the server name Jsonschema.

Tool Count1/5

32 tools is already too many, but for a server named Jsonschema only one tool belongs to that domain; the rest form a broad data-research and prediction-market suite. This is an extreme scoping mismatch: the set is simultaneously oversized and almost entirely off-purpose.

Completeness1/5

For a JSON Schema server, the surface is essentially one operation: validate_json_schema. Common schema lifecycle operations—generation, parsing, conversion, ref resolution, linting—are missing, leaving most JSON Schema tasks impossible. The unrelated data-research tools are internally rich, but they do not complete the apparent domain.