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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond annotations (readOnly, idempotent), the description discloses scanning scope (top ~200 markets), threshold for signals (deviations >3pp), filtering mechanisms (semantic anchor Jaccard ≥0.30, placeholder fraction >20%), and response structure including fill check behavior. All behavioral traits are clearly explained without contradiction.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is well-structured with clear sections for each mode and technical details like fill checks, but it is slightly verbose (~250 words). Every sentence adds value, but some technical details (e.g., exact similarity threshold) could be condensed without loss.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given no output schema, the description fully compensates by detailing the response fields (opportunities[], partition_check{...}, fill check with realizable_edge_pp). It also covers edge cases (placeholder filtering, low similarity) and links to a sibling tool for advanced usage. The tool is completely described for agent invocation.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with brief descriptions, but the tool description adds substantial value: explains that event expects a slug and triggers child market traversal with specific checks, while topic triggers cross-event search with comparator. Also explains recommended use for each parameter.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description explicitly states 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks' and distinguishes between three call modes (no args, event, topic). It clearly identifies the tool's purpose and differentiates it from sibling tools like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit guidance for each mode: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan... pass `event` for the strongest per-event partition_check, or `topic` for a themed cross-event scan.' Also explains when to avoid trading (realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0) and references a sibling tool for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Disambiguation5/5

Each tool has a clearly distinct purpose, from querying data (ask_pipeworx) to entity profiling (entity_profile) to prediction market analysis (polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges). Even similar tools like deep_research and ask_pipeworx are differentiated by scope (single vs. multi-facet). There is no ambiguity.

Naming Consistency4/5

The vast majority of tools use snake_case (e.g., validate_claim, compare_entities). However, a few tools are single words (forget, recall, remember, subscribe, unsubscribe) which breaks the pattern slightly. This is a minor inconsistency.

Tool Count4/5

With 33 tools, the set is on the larger side but well-justified by the broad scope of the server (data querying, entity research, prediction markets, JSON utilities, subscriptions, etc.). Each tool serves a specific need, making the count appropriate.

Completeness5/5

The tool surface covers virtually all expected operations for the domain: querying, profiling, comparison, change tracking, validation, discovery, subscriptions, memory, and utilities. No obvious gaps are present for the intended use case of accessing Pipeworx data and related tasks.

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