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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations only provide read-only, open-world, idempotent, and non-destructive hints; the description goes far beyond them. It discloses the token-overlap matching method, defines every compatibility code, explains that unclassified legs are never paired, and clarifies that null temporal_alignment means unknown rather than aligned. It also discloses that spreads are gross of Kalshi fees, making the behavioral surface unusually transparent.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense but front-loaded: purpose first, then modes, then response shape and caveats. Some redundancy exists, such as repeated 'same disclosures apply' and 'in EITHER mode' qualifiers, and the compatibility-code list could be better structured as bullets. Still, nearly every sentence carries a distinct operational fact needed to call the tool correctly.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description fully compensates by explaining return values: leg-by-leg prices, top_spreads_pp, per-entry flags, skipped_unclassified, low_confidence_pairs, temporal_alignment, fees_note, and skipped counters. It also covers failure cases, such as compatibility_warning being non-empty even when matched_pairs>0, and the fee-modeling limitation. An agent has enough information to call and interpret the tool correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline burden on the description is low and the schema already documents parameter meanings and override behavior. The description adds semantic value by explaining that both modes run the identical token-overlap matcher and that `topic` values auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. This meaningfully enriches parameter understanding beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The opening sentence names the exact function: computing the cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. It distinguishes this from single-venue or arbitrage tools by emphasizing the two-venue comparison and by clearly framing the two modes. The extensive caveats reinforce what the tool does without obscuring it.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives explicit mode-selection guidance: use `topic` shortcuts for ten pre-mapped events, or provide explicit `kalshi_event_ticker` + `polymarket_event_slug` for custom pairings. It also warns that most pre-mapped topics currently return compatibility warnings, which tells the agent when results are untrustworthy. However, it never names or contrasts sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage or polymarket_edges, so 'when to use this instead of X' is only implicit.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools have overlapping purposes, such as ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, and specialized tools like entity_profile or validate_claim that can answer similar questions. This creates ambiguity for an agent trying to select the correct tool.

Naming Consistency5/5

All tool names follow a consistent snake_case pattern, with most using a verb_noun structure (e.g., ask_pipeworx, compare_entities, resolve_entity). There are no mixed conventions or chaotic naming.

Tool Count3/5

With 31 tools, the server is on the heavy side. While each tool has a distinct purpose, the number is borderline for a coherent set and could be streamlined, especially given the overlapping functionality.

Completeness3/5

The tool set covers a wide range of query and analysis tasks, including data lookup, comparison, betting research, memory, and subscriptions. However, there are notable gaps (e.g., no update/delete for most data, no user management) and some tools seem out of place (e.g., generate_llms_txt).