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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description discloses extensive behavioral details beyond annotations: how it runs (walks child markets, computes partition checks), the semantic anchor (≥0.30 Jaccard similarity), partition filter (placeholder slugs), fill check against CLOB depth, and response structure. No contradiction with annotations (readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, destructiveHint=false).

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is well-structured with clear sections for each mode and additional features (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK). It is front-loaded with the core purpose. While verbose, it earns its length due to the tool's complexity; minor redundancy could be trimmed but overall effective.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a complex tool with no output schema, the description thoroughly covers input modes, internal logic, response fields (gap_pp, suggested_trade, etc.), fill check conditions, and fallback to fill_risk. It provides enough context for an AI agent to correctly invoke the tool and interpret results without ambiguity.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% (both parameters described in schema). The description adds significant value beyond schema: explains the recommended usage for each parameter (event slug format, topic seed question), the algorithmic context (e.g., cross-event pairing logic), and hints about acceptance of full Polymarket URLs. This compensates for the lack of enums or nested objects.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It specifies three invocation modes (no args, event, topic) and differentiates each with concrete examples, distinguishing it from sibling tools like polymarket_edges or polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly states when to use each mode: call with NO args for trending scan, pass event for a specific market (recommended for known events), or topic for cross-event scanning. It also provides negative guidance (do not trade when realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0) and points to polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, offering clear decision paths.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools have overlapping purposes, such as ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, and specialized tools like entity_profile or validate_claim that can answer similar questions. This creates ambiguity for an agent trying to select the correct tool.

Naming Consistency5/5

All tool names follow a consistent snake_case pattern, with most using a verb_noun structure (e.g., ask_pipeworx, compare_entities, resolve_entity). There are no mixed conventions or chaotic naming.

Tool Count3/5

With 31 tools, the server is on the heavy side. While each tool has a distinct purpose, the number is borderline for a coherent set and could be streamlined, especially given the overlapping functionality.

Completeness3/5

The tool set covers a wide range of query and analysis tasks, including data lookup, comparison, betting research, memory, and subscriptions. However, there are notable gaps (e.g., no update/delete for most data, no user management) and some tools seem out of place (e.g., generate_llms_txt).

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