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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already indicate a read-only, idempotent, non-destructive tool. The description adds extensive behavioral context: it walks child markets, checks ordering, computes partition sum with deviation threshold, applies semantic similarity and placeholder filtering, and includes fill check logic with realizable edge limits. This fully discloses operational nuances.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is relatively long but well-structured, starting with the overall purpose, then detailing call modes, followed by technical specifics. Every sentence adds value, though some details (e.g., fill check) could be slightly condensed without losing clarity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite no output schema, the description thoroughly explains the response structure (opportunities array with fields, partition_check object in event mode) and conditions under which trades should be avoided (realizable edge <= 0). It also references a related tool for custom sizing, leaving no gap for a complex tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with descriptions for both parameters. The tool description enriches these by providing examples (slugs, seed questions), noting URL acceptance for event, and explaining behavioral differences. This adds value beyond the schema, though the schema descriptions are already adequate.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: finding arbitrage opportunities via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes three call modes (trending scan, event, topic) and differentiates from sibling tools like polymarket_fill_risk by mentioning fill check and custom sizing.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance on when to use each argument: no args for trending scan, event for specific market, topic for cross-event scanning. It explains the benefits of each mode and when one might catch patterns the other misses, enabling informed selection.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Many tools serve similar querying purposes (e.g., ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research) which could confuse an agent. However, detailed descriptions clarify differences, and some tools are very distinct (e.g., CIDR parsing, entity profile). Overlap is moderate but not severe.

Naming Consistency5/5

Tool names follow a consistent verb_noun pattern (e.g., resolve_entity, validate_claim, list_subscriptions) with underscores separating words. No mixing of styles like camelCase or abbreviations. Naming is clear and predictable.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools is excessive for a single server, covering areas as diverse as IP parsing, AI visibility, Polymarket betting, and SEC filings. This broad scope suggests the server tries to do too much, leading to a heavy and potentially unwieldy tool set.

Completeness3/5

The tool surface covers many domains (financials, prediction markets, IP tools, memory, subscriptions) but has notable gaps: no update for stored memories, limited subscription management (no modification), and some tools are marked as beta or deprecated. The set feels broad but not deep.