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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, and idempotentHint, and the description adds significant extra context: cache behavior ('Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs'), model-family details, tradeable-edge filters, diagnostic structure, and the Fed-bet caveat. No contradiction exists; the description enriches beyond the annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is a dense wall of technical text but is front-loaded with purpose and each sentence earns its place. It could benefit from more structural formatting (bullets/sections), yet it remains information-rich without fluff.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool has no output schema, the description thoroughly documents the response top-level fields, categories, diagnostics, warnings, and knob effects. It covers edge_pp_net, kelly fractions, liquidity, spread, volume, and the 24h-move warning, making it complete for a complex tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although schema coverage is 100%, the description adds meaning beyond the schema. It explains how min_kelly interacts with partition opportunities, what slippage_pp assumes, and why min_partition_leg_kelly exists as a per-leg filter. These nuances directly help an agent set correct values.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb+resource: 'Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price.' It clearly frames the use case ('what should I bet on today') and distinguishes this from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage or polymarket_fill_risk by emphasizing Pipeworx data disagreement and discovery without paging through markets.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

It states when to use it ('agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets') and provides detailed knob guidance for filtering. However, it does not explicitly say when NOT to use this tool or name alternative sibling tools, so it falls short of the highest level.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.4/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have overlapping or poorly distinguished purposes. For instance, `ask_pipeworx` and `ask_pipeworx_beta` have nearly identical descriptions, and `ask_pipeworx_grounded` also shares the same routing but adds a different output format. The `ai_visibility_check` and `scan_competitor_ai_presence` tools also overlap significantly.

Naming Consistency3/5

There is some consistency with verb_noun patterns (e.g., `resolve_entity`, `search_within`, `subscribe`, `unsubscribe`). However, there are many deviations: `ask_pipeworx`, `pipeworx_feedback`, `pipeworx_trending`, `entity_profile`, `scan_dependency`, and `polymarket_edges` break the pattern, mixing descriptive names with non-standard prefixes.

Tool Count4/5

37 tools is slightly above the ideal range for a single MCP server, but the tools cover a very broad and varied domain (IETF data, company research, prediction markets, package scanning, memory, etc.). The count is high but still within a manageable scope for a multi-purpose utility server.

Completeness2/5

The server combines tools from two very different domains: IETF Datatracker (document/WG/person lookups) and Pipeworx (data retrieval, prediction markets, company analysis). The IETF-related tools are sparse and incomplete (only document search, document, person, wg, wgs_search, rfc are present—no ability to create or modify records). The Pipeworx side is extensive but leaves notable gaps (e.g., no tool for submitting comments or editing IETF documents).

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