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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description adds substantial behavioral detail beyond the annotations: it explains the partition-check mechanism, semantic similarity threshold (Jaccard ≥ 0.30), placeholder filtering, and the fill-check logic with realizable edge. It clearly warns 'do not trade it' when realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0, and the annotations (readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, destructiveHint=false) are consistent with this read-only analytic description. No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but highly structured and every sentence adds unique value. It front-loads the core purpose, then uses bolded labels (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) to organize complex behavioral rules. No filler or redundant statements.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (two modes, multiple filters, output schema absent), the description covers response shapes, thresholds, edge cases, and failure signals (e.g., 'skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count'). It even provides usage guidance for when the partition signal fires. This is as complete as needed for an agent to select and invoke the tool correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, but the description goes far beyond the schema by explaining not just what each parameter is but how the tool uses it: event slugs are resolved via walking child markets, topic seeds are expanded via search and flattened, and each mode returns different signal structures. It also provides concrete example values that illustrate the expected format.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb+resource: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes three modes (trending_scan, event, topic) and contrasts with sibling tools by describing unique mechanisms and output types.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit when-to-use guidance is provided: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan', pass `event` for a specific market, or `topic` for cross-event scanning. It also gives examples of valid inputs, explains when `topic` is preferred ('catches ... patterns that single-event misses'), and directs users to `polymarket_fill_risk` for custom sizing—an explicit alternative.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.4/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have overlapping or poorly distinguished purposes. For instance, `ask_pipeworx` and `ask_pipeworx_beta` have nearly identical descriptions, and `ask_pipeworx_grounded` also shares the same routing but adds a different output format. The `ai_visibility_check` and `scan_competitor_ai_presence` tools also overlap significantly.

Naming Consistency3/5

There is some consistency with verb_noun patterns (e.g., `resolve_entity`, `search_within`, `subscribe`, `unsubscribe`). However, there are many deviations: `ask_pipeworx`, `pipeworx_feedback`, `pipeworx_trending`, `entity_profile`, `scan_dependency`, and `polymarket_edges` break the pattern, mixing descriptive names with non-standard prefixes.

Tool Count4/5

37 tools is slightly above the ideal range for a single MCP server, but the tools cover a very broad and varied domain (IETF data, company research, prediction markets, package scanning, memory, etc.). The count is high but still within a manageable scope for a multi-purpose utility server.

Completeness2/5

The server combines tools from two very different domains: IETF Datatracker (document/WG/person lookups) and Pipeworx (data retrieval, prediction markets, company analysis). The IETF-related tools are sparse and incomplete (only document search, document, person, wg, wgs_search, rfc are present—no ability to create or modify records). The Pipeworx side is extensive but leaves notable gaps (e.g., no tool for submitting comments or editing IETF documents).