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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the safe annotations (readOnlyHint, idempotentHint), the description discloses detailed behavior: walking child markets, date-axis ordering, partition checks, semantic anchor with Jaccard similarity, partition filter for placeholder slugs, and fill check logic against live CLOB depth. It explicitly warns 'do not trade it' when the edge is not realizable.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is well-structured and front-loaded with the main purpose. However, it is somewhat verbose with detailed technical explanations. While every sentence adds value, some brevity could improve readability without losing clarity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

The tool has no output schema, but the description fully explains the response fields (opportunities array, partition_check object, fill check details). It covers both modes and edge cases (semantic anchor, partition filter, thin legs). This is remarkably complete for a complex tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

With 100% schema coverage, the description adds significant meaning: it explains what an event slug is (e.g., 'fed-decision-may-2026'), what a topic seed question is, and how each mode works. It also clarifies the response structure, which is not in the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It distinguishes between three modes (no args, event, topic) and differentiates from sibling tools like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Detailed guidance is provided for each mode: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan...', 'event (recommended for a specific market)...', 'topic (for cross-event scanning)...'. It also mentions when not to use (e.g., 'do not trade it' when realizable edge ≤ 0) and refers to the sibling tool polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools blur together: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all answer factual questions with overlapping routing behavior, while polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, and bet_research all surface prediction-market opportunities. Long descriptions help, but the boundaries between these clusters are genuinely unclear, and the three IEEE tools are buried in a sea of unrelated Pipeworx tools.

Naming Consistency4/5

The naming is predominantly snake_case with clear family prefixes like ieee_, ask_pipeworx_, and polymarket_, and most tools follow a readable verb_noun or noun_verb shape. Minor deviations exist (remember/recall/forget, bet_research, pipeworx_trending) but there is no camelCase/mixed-convention problem, so the overall pattern is predictable.

Tool Count1/5

A server named 'Ieee Standards' exposes 34 tools, yet only three of them (ieee_search, ieee_standard_search, ieee_article) actually serve that domain. The remaining 31 tools form a general Pipeworx data, prediction-market, memory, and subscription platform, which is an extreme scope mismatch for the stated server purpose.

Completeness4/5

For the IEEE lookup domain, the three IEEE tools cover the core read-only workflow: broad corpus search, standards-specific search, and full metadata retrieval by article number or DOI. Minor gaps exist (browsing by committee, revision/status history, full-text access) but those are workable or inherently restricted by IEEE's paywall.

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