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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description adds extensive behavioral details beyond annotations (readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, destructiveHint). It explains monotonicity checks, partition-sum checks, semantic anchor with Jaccard similarity, partition filter with placeholder slugs, fill check against live CLOB depth, and conditions for null signals. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured, starting with the main purpose then detailing modes, semantics, and response format. Every sentence adds value, though it could be slightly more concise without losing information. It effectively front-loads the key action.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite lacking an output schema, the description fully explains the response structure: opportunities[] with fields (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context) and event-mode partition_check. It also details fill_check outputs. For a complex tool, this is exceptionally complete.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, but the description adds significant meaning: for 'event' it explains walking child markets and checking date-axis/threshold-axis ordering; for 'topic' it explains cross-event scanning and structural patterns. It also clarifies that URLs are accepted for event slugs.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It uses specific verbs (find, call, pass) and distinguishes between modes (no args, event, topic), making it distinct from sibling tools like polymarket_edges or polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidance on when to use each mode: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check; topic for cross-event scan.' It also recommends event mode for specific markets, and advises against trading when realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0. It points to polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools route to the same underlying Pipeworx engine (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research), and ask_pipeworx_beta is explicitly identical to ask_pipeworx right now. The polymarket family (bet_research, polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_fill_risk, polymarket_kalshi_spread) and the entity-investigation tools (entity_profile, compare_entities, recent_changes, resolve_entity) also have heavily overlapping purposes that an agent could easily confuse.

Naming Consistency3/5

Most tools use snake_case, but the set mixes verb-first names (get_specimen, search_specimens, resolve_entity, validate_claim) with noun-first names (entity_profile, recent_alerts, polymarket_edges, pipeworx_trending). The polymarket_ and pipeworx_ prefixes give some internal consistency, but the overall pattern is not uniform.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is heavy for a server named Idigbio, especially since only 3 of the 34 tools (count_by_field, get_specimen, search_specimens) actually relate to iDigBio specimen data. The remaining 31 are a sprawling Pipeworx/prediction-market/marketing/memory toolkit, making the tool count mismatched with the server's apparent identity.

Completeness3/5

The Pipeworx side is quite complete: querying, grounded answers, deep research, entity profiles, comparisons, claim validation, subscriptions, memory, and feedback are all present. However, the iDigBio side, which the server name advertises, is only minimally covered with search/get/count and lacks any collection or media download operations, so the overall surface has notable gaps relative to the server's stated focus.