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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

This description goes far beyond the readOnly/idempotent annotations by detailing matcher behavior, compatibility codes, skipped pairs, low-confidence inspections, gross-vs-net fee disclosures, and the meaning of null temporal alignment. It discloses both what the tool does and where its output may be misleading. No contradiction with the annotations exists.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-organized with labeled sections for modes, response, safety fields, and codes. It is front-loaded with the core purpose and then layers necessary operational detail. Some redundancy exists around temporal_alignment_unknown and null semantics, but given the richness of the tool's output and the absence of an output schema, the length is largely justified.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description carries the full burden of explaining the response shape and safety semantics, and it succeeds. It covers matched spreads, per-entry flags, compatibility warnings, skipped categories, fee modeling limitations, and temporal alignment behavior. An agent has enough context to interpret results correctly and avoid treating pre-mapped spreads as automatically tradeable.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The input schema already documents all three parameters at 100% coverage, so the baseline is 3. The description adds meaningful semantics by explaining the two modes, that explicit ticker/slug overrides the topic-mapped side, and that both modes run the same matcher. It enriches parameter understanding without needing to restate schema text.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly identifies the tool's function: computing cross-venue spreads between Kalshi and Polymarket for matching resolving questions. It names the specific resource and explains the two input modes. However, it does not explicitly differentiate itself from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage, so distinguishing from alternatives is left somewhat implicit.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives clear usage context: use topic shortcuts for pre-mapped macro events, or custom ticker/slug pairs for explicit pairings. It also warns that most pre-mapped topics currently return compatibility warnings and that pre-mapped does not mean tradeable. It stops short of naming specific sibling alternatives or explicit when-not-to-use conditions, so it misses the top score.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

C2.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools serve overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, validate_claim, entity_profile, compare_entities, and resolve_entity all perform data lookups with subtle differences. The prediction-market tools (bet_research, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges, etc.) heavily overlap, and even the HTTP utilities (headers, ip, user_agent, cookies) echo similar request information. Agents will struggle to pick the right tool.

Naming Consistency2/5

Naming is internally inconsistent: some tools use short imperative verbs (get, post, status, delay), others use long descriptive phrases (ask_pipeworx, entity_profile, scan_competitor_ai_presence). There is no common pattern—some are verb+noun, some noun+noun, some proper nouns. The mix of styles makes it hard to predict tool names.

Tool Count2/5

47 tools is excessive for a server named Httpbin, which conventionally should have a handful of HTTP debugging utilities. Most tools are unrelated to HTTP (data lookups, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions), indicating severe scope creep. The count feels bloated and unwieldy.

Completeness2/5

For HTTP debugging, the set is incomplete—missing common methods (PUT, DELETE, PATCH) and error-handling features. For the broader data/proposition-market domain, coverage is fragmented and unclear. The server appears to be a jumble of partially complete feature sets with no coherent domain, leaving obvious gaps in each.