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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description comprehensively explains behavioral traits beyond annotations: the three scan modes, partition check logic, semantic anchor (Jaccard similarity), partition filter, fill check with live order book, and response structure. Annotations (readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, destructiveHint=false) are consistent and the description adds significant context.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is thorough and well-organized with clear sections (trending, event, topic, semantic anchor, partition filter, fill check). While dense, every sentence carries information; slight length is justified by the tool's complexity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite lacking an output schema, the description fully documents the return structure (opportunities[] with gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, etc.) and all behavioral details (fill check, similarity filters, placeholder detection). It is complete for safe and effective use.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, but the description greatly enriches parameter meaning: defines what an event slug is, recommends usage, explains cross-event behavior with topic, and gives concrete examples. This goes far beyond the schema descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: finding arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes three modes (trending scan, single-event, cross-event) and explicitly contrasts with sibling tools like polymarket_fill_risk and polymarket_edges.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance on when to use each mode: no args for trending, 'event' for specific markets, 'topic' for cross-event scanning. It includes recommendations (event mode recommended for specific markets) and when not to trade (fill check with realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0).

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

C2.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools serve overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, validate_claim, entity_profile, compare_entities, and resolve_entity all perform data lookups with subtle differences. The prediction-market tools (bet_research, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges, etc.) heavily overlap, and even the HTTP utilities (headers, ip, user_agent, cookies) echo similar request information. Agents will struggle to pick the right tool.

Naming Consistency2/5

Naming is internally inconsistent: some tools use short imperative verbs (get, post, status, delay), others use long descriptive phrases (ask_pipeworx, entity_profile, scan_competitor_ai_presence). There is no common pattern—some are verb+noun, some noun+noun, some proper nouns. The mix of styles makes it hard to predict tool names.

Tool Count2/5

47 tools is excessive for a server named Httpbin, which conventionally should have a handful of HTTP debugging utilities. Most tools are unrelated to HTTP (data lookups, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions), indicating severe scope creep. The count feels bloated and unwieldy.

Completeness2/5

For HTTP debugging, the set is incomplete—missing common methods (PUT, DELETE, PATCH) and error-handling features. For the broader data/proposition-market domain, coverage is fragmented and unclear. The server appears to be a jumble of partially complete feature sets with no coherent domain, leaving obvious gaps in each.

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