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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true and idempotentHint=true, but the description goes far beyond by detailing the internal algorithms (partition_check, semantic anchor, Jaccard similarity), the fill check against live CLOB depth, and explicit warnings like 'realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it.' No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but information-dense, with clearly labeled sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK). Every sentence contributes unique value, and the structure makes complex behavior easy to navigate. No redundancy or filler.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite having no output schema, the description explicitly defines the response structure (opportunities[] with gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, etc.) and covers all modes, edge cases, and limitations. It is comprehensive enough for an agent to correctly invoke the tool and interpret results.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, but the description adds significant semantic value beyond the schema. It provides concrete examples for `event` ('fed-decision-may-2026', 'when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k'), explains that full URLs are accepted, and clarifies what `topic` does (searches related events). The mode-specific behavior is richly described, making the parameters far more meaningful.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb and resource: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' This clearly states what the tool does and distinguishes it from siblings like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk, which focus on other aspects of Polymarket analysis.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance on when to use each mode: no args for trending_scan, `event` for a specific market (recommended), and `topic` for cross-event scanning. It also names an alternative tool, polymarket_fill_risk, for custom sizing, and explains why cross-event mode catches patterns single-event misses.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools overlap heavily: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta (currently identical), and ask_pipeworx_grounded share the same routing core, while bet_research, polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, and polymarket_fill_risk all target prediction-market edge detection. The descriptions are detailed, but an agent must read a lot of nuance to avoid selecting the wrong tool.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names are lowercase snake_case and readable, but the convention is mixed: verb_noun names like encode_html and resolve_entity sit alongside bare verbs like remember and forget, and noun-phrase names like entity_profile, recent_changes, and polymarket_fill_risk. The ask_pipeworx_* and polymarket_* families are internally consistent, but there is no single predictable pattern across the whole set.

Tool Count2/5

At 33 tools this exceeds the 25+ threshold for a heavy set. The bloat is especially noticeable because the server is named Htmlentities yet only encode_html and decode_html relate to that purpose; the rest are unrelated Pipeworx research, prediction-market, memory, and subscription utilities.

Completeness4/5

The Pipeworx surface is broadly complete: ask/grounded/deep_research/discover/suggest cover data access, entity_profile/compare_entities/recent_changes/validate_claim cover entity workflows, and subscriptions and memory have create/list/delete lifecycles. Minor gaps such as no update operation for subscriptions or memories are workable, and encode/decode fully covers the literal Htmlentities purpose.