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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The annotations already indicate it is read-only, idempotent, and non-destructive. The description adds extensive behavioral details: how it resolves markets, handles low-confidence matches (blocking analysis fields), closed markets, wide spreads, cancellation rules, and error states (GDELT 429 fallback). There is no contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is extremely detailed with many sections (RESOLVER CONTRACT, PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR, etc.), making it a wall of text. While well-structured, it is not concise; some detail could be streamlined without losing essential information. An AI agent may find it overwhelming to parse quickly.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (multiple evidence sources, edge cases, response shapes), the description is remarkably complete. It covers all scenarios: low-confidence matches, closed markets, wide spreads, cancellation rules, and fallback mechanisms. Without an output schema, the description fully explains return values and error states.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The input schema has 100% description coverage for all three parameters. The description adds significant meaning beyond the schema: it explains the 'market' parameter accepts slugs, URLs, or question text; describes 'depth' values (quick vs thorough) and their impact; and clarifies 'include_raw' with size implications and when to use true. Examples reinforce understanding.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool researches Polymarket bets by pulling Pipeworx data. It uses specific verbs ('research', 'pull', 'resolve', 'classify', 'fan out') and identifies the resource ('Polymarket bet', 'Pipeworx data'). It distinguishes from sibling tools like polymarket_edges and polymarket_arbitrage by providing explicit use cases ('Use for "should I bet on X"...').

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides clear usage guidance with examples ('Use for "should I bet on X"...') and explains the tool's purpose. However, it does not explicitly state when not to use this tool or mention alternatives among siblings, leaving some ambiguity for an AI agent selecting among multiple Polymarket-related tools.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4/5.0
Disambiguation5/5

Each tool has a clear, distinct purpose with detailed descriptions that differentiate overlapping capabilities (e.g., ask_pipeworx vs deep_research vs ask_pipeworx_grounded vs bet_research). No two tools appear redundant; even similar prediction-market tools (polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_fill_risk) have specific scopes.

Naming Consistency5/5

Tool names consistently use lowercase snake_case (e.g., ai_visibility_check, compare_entities, pipeworx_trending, polymarket_kalshi_spread). Single-word exceptions (ephemeris, lookup, observers, recall, remember, vectors) are common short verbs and do not break the pattern. No mixing of camelCase or other conventions.

Tool Count4/5

35 tools is above the typical 3-15 range, but the server is a comprehensive data platform covering multiple domains (SEC, FDA, FRED, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions, feedback). The count is justified given the breadth; it feels slightly heavy but not bloated or redundant.

Completeness5/5

The tool surface covers the full lifecycle for a data/research platform: discovery (discover_tools, suggest_questions), entity resolution (resolve_entity), lookups (ask_pipeworx, entity_profile), comparison (compare_entities), validation (validate_claim), prediction-market operations (polymarket_*), memory (remember/recall/forget), subscriptions (subscribe/unsubscribe/list_subscriptions/recent_alerts), and meta/feedback (pipeworx_feedback, pipeworx_trending). No obvious gaps for typical workflows.

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