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Hex Pm

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • removedInput schema / anyOf
      Removed value: -[
-  {
-    "required": [
-      "event"
-    ]
-  },
-  {
-    "required": [
-      "topic"
-    ]
-  }
-]
  2. Changed3 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / anyOf
      Added value: +[
+  {
+    "required": [
+      "event"
+    ]
+  },
+  {
+    "required": [
+      "topic"
+    ]
+  }
+]
    • changedInput schema / properties / event / description
      Previous value: -"Single-event mode: Polymarket event slug (e.g. \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\") or full URL."New value: +"Single-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like \"fed-decision-may-2026\" or \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted."
    • changedInput schema / properties / topic / description
      Previous value: -"Cross-event mode: a topic or seed question. Tool searches Polymarket for related markets across separate events and checks monotonicity across them. E.g. \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\"."New value: +"Cross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like \"Fed rate decision\" or \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them."
  3. First observed

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true, idempotentHint=true, and destructiveHint=false, but the description adds substantial behavioral context: the partition filter for placeholder slugs, the semantic similarity threshold (≥0.30 Jaccard), the fill check against live CLOB depth, and the explicit warning that a realizable edge ≤0 means the overround is not tradeable. This goes far beyond the annotations and makes the tool's behavior fully transparent.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but every sentence earns its place. It uses clear section labels (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) and front-loads the core purpose in the first sentence. Structure is logical: mode selection followed by operational details, response format, and risk caveats. No filler or repetition.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (multiple modes, thresholds, placeholder filtering, fill checking) and lack of an output schema, the description is remarkably complete. It specifies the return structure (opportunities[], partition_check{...}), the fill check details, the semantic anchor threshold, and the partition filter behavior. It even mentions a sibling tool for custom sizing, covering the full decision context.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although schema coverage is 100%, the description enriches both parameters with examples and mode-specific semantics. It explains that `event` is for a specific Polymarket event slug, walks child markets, and computes a partition check, while `topic` is a seed question for cross-event scanning. It even provides example values ('fed-decision-may-2026', 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal') and explains the difference between the two modes, adding meaning beyond the schema's basic 'single-event mode' and 'cross-event mode' descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb+resource: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes three invocation modes (no-args scan, event, topic) and explains what each does, differentiating it from sibling tools like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidance is given: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan... pass `event` for the strongest per-event partition_check, or `topic` for a themed cross-event scan.' It also recommends `event` for a specific market, explains why cross-event mode catches patterns single-event misses, and directs custom sizing to polymarket_fill_risk. This fully covers when and how to use each mode.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools occupy overlapping question-answering territory: ask_pipeworx_beta currently behaves identically to ask_pipeworx, while ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, and validate_claim all route the same data catalog and differ mainly in output guarantees. The six Polymarket tools also split edge detection, arbitrage, and fill-risk in ways that are easy for an agent to conflate. Clear exceptions like the memory and subscription trios keep it from a 1.

Naming Consistency4/5

Names are uniformly lowercase snake_case and most follow a readable verb-first or domain-prefixed pattern (get_package, list_releases, scan_dependency, ask_pipeworx_*). The Polymarket family uses noun phrases after a prefix (polymarket_edges, polymarket_fill_risk) and a few names are noun-first (entity_profile, recent_changes), which is a minor inconsistency rather than chaos.

Tool Count2/5

35 tools is well beyond the comfortable 3-15 range and even above the 16-25 heavy range. The broad Pipeworx data scope justifies some expansion, but identical ask_pipeworx_beta, six overlapping Polymarket tools, and unrelated utility families (Hex.pm, AI visibility, memory, llms.txt) suggest bloat rather than deliberate scoping.

Completeness4/5

Within its main data-access purpose, the surface is unusually complete: query (ask_pipeworx), grounded verification (ask_pipeworx_grounded/validate_claim), deep research, entity resolution/profiling, comparison, change feeds, and search-within are all present, and memory/subscription subdomains have full CRUD. There are minor gaps for the package side (no docs/dependents) and the hodgepodge of domains makes a single 'complete' surface hard to define, but no workflow hits a hard dead end.

Resources