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Hal Fr

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • removedInput schema / anyOf
      Removed value: -[
-  {
-    "required": [
-      "event"
-    ]
-  },
-  {
-    "required": [
-      "topic"
-    ]
-  }
-]
  2. Changed3 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / anyOf
      Added value: +[
+  {
+    "required": [
+      "event"
+    ]
+  },
+  {
+    "required": [
+      "topic"
+    ]
+  }
+]
    • changedInput schema / properties / event / description
      Previous value: -"Single-event mode: Polymarket event slug (e.g. \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\") or full URL."New value: +"Single-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like \"fed-decision-may-2026\" or \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted."
    • changedInput schema / properties / topic / description
      Previous value: -"Cross-event mode: a topic or seed question. Tool searches Polymarket for related markets across separate events and checks monotonicity across them. E.g. \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\"."New value: +"Cross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like \"Fed rate decision\" or \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them."
  3. Added

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already signal read-only, idempotent, and non-destructive behavior, but the description goes far beyond that by explaining threshold behavior (>3pp), placeholder filtering, Jaccard similarity gating, and the fill-check pricing against live CLOB depth. It also discloses failure modes like skipped_low_similarity and null arb signals, which is valuable behavioral context not captured in annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is densely packed but well-structured with labeled sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) that make it scannable. It is long, but every section provides necessary operational detail for a domain-specific arbitrage tool; it is front-loaded with the purpose and usage, and the later sections add depth rather than filler.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

There is no output schema, so the description carries the burden of explaining return values, and it does so explicitly for both modes (opportunities[] fields and partition_check object), plus fill-check outputs. It also addresses complex edge cases (partitions with placeholders, low similarity, thin legs) and provides the necessary domain logic, making it fully complete for the tool's complexity.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The schema already has 100% coverage with clear parameter descriptions, so the baseline is 3; the description adds extra meaning by explaining the full mode semantics, the types of slugs accepted, and the cross-event scan behavior. It reinforces and expands on the schema without being redundant, though the schema already carries most of the param-level meaning.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb+resource: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes three modes (trending_scan, event, topic) and references related tools like polymarket_fill_risk, making the tool's purpose and scope unambiguous relative to siblings.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidance covers when to use each mode: 'Call with NO args for trending_scan', 'event (recommended for a specific market)', and 'topic (for cross-event scanning)'. It also names alternatives and caveats, such as using polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing and warning not to trade when realizable_edge_pp <= 0, providing clear when-to and when-not-to instructions.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.4/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools occupy nearly the same role: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded are deliberately near-duplicates, while deep_research, validate_claim, bet_research, and the polymarket_* family all route factual questions to overlapping data pipelines. Generic single-word tools like get, search, structure, and author add further ambiguity, making it hard for an agent to confidently pick the right tool.

Naming Consistency3/5

Names are consistently lowercase snake_case, but they mix verb_noun tools (list_subscriptions, resolve_entity, validate_claim) with bare nouns (author, get, search, structure) and domain-prefixed families (ask_pipeworx, polymarket_*, pipeworx_*). The conventions are readable but not predictable enough to infer behavior from the name alone.

Tool Count2/5

35 tools is heavy for a single server, especially when many are meta-routers or near-variants of each other. The broad data-research scope justifies some breadth, but the surface feels padded with overlapping research and prediction-market tools rather than a tight, well-scoped set.

Completeness4/5

For its apparent purpose — authoritative data lookup, verification, research, entity profiling, prediction-market analysis, and monitoring — the surface is largely complete: retrieval, grounded answers, deep research, comparison, change tracking, subscriptions, and memory are all covered. Minor gaps exist, such as no direct tool for managing alert delivery or for some of the vague HAL-style operations, but agents can work around these via the router tools.

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