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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already indicate readOnly, idempotent, non-destructive. The description adds valuable behavioral details: partition checks, fill checks, semantic anchor, partition filter, and response structure. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is lengthy but well-structured and front-loaded with key usage. Every sentence adds value, but could be slightly more concise without losing information.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given tool complexity (multiple modes, fill checks, partition checks) and no output schema, the description thoroughly explains return structure, edge cases, and references sibling tool. Complete for effective tool invocation.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% but description adds deep meaning: explains event slug vs topic, provides examples, describes cross-event mode behavior, semantic anchor, partition filter, and fill check logic. Far exceeds schema descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes three calling modes (no args, event, topic) with specific behavior for each, making the purpose very clear and distinct from sibling tools.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidance on when to use each mode: no args for trending scan, event for specific market (recommended), topic for cross-event scanning. Also references polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, providing clear context for alternatives.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Several overlapping clusters exist: ask_pipeworx/ask_pipeworx_beta/ask_pipeworx_grounded/deep_research all handle research questions, polymarket_edges and polymarket_arbitrage both scan for trading opportunities, and discover_tools/suggest_questions serve similar discovery purposes. The long, use-case-specific descriptions help, but an agent could still easily pick the wrong tool among these near-duplicates.

Naming Consistency4/5

Most tools follow a snake_case verb_noun or noun pattern (resolve_entity, validate_claim, list_subscriptions, h1b_salary), which is fairly consistent. However, there are deviations: bare verbs like recall/remember/forget/subscribe, noun-only phrases like entity_profile and recent_changes, and the ask_pipeworx_beta suffix variant break the pattern slightly.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is well past the 25+ threshold, and the server is named 'H1b' while only 3 of the 34 tools relate to H-1B data. The rest is a sprawling mix of data research, prediction-market analytics, memory, subscriptions, AI visibility checks, and unrelated utilities like generate_llms_txt and scan_dependency — a severe scope mismatch.

Completeness4/5

As a de facto Pipeworx research platform, the surface is nearly complete: open-ended queries, grounded evidence mode, deep multi-source research, entity resolution, comparison, claim validation, subscriptions, memory, and feedback. The H-1B sub-domain covers employer, salary, and top-sponsor lookups, though the mention of green cards is a small mismatch since only LCA data is provided.

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