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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations indicate readOnly, openWorld, idempotent, non-destructive. The description adds extensive behavioral context: monotonicity violations, partition checks, Jaccard similarity filtering, placeholder filtering, and fill check against CLOB depth. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured into paragraphs with clear sections. It is front-loaded with the main purpose and modes. Some details (e.g., Jaccard threshold, placeholder fraction) could be more concise, but overall it is efficient for the complexity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity and lack of output schema, the description covers modes, partition checks, fill checks, and response structure. It lacks explicit error handling or limitations, but for a read-only analysis tool, it provides sufficient context for an AI agent to use it correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, but the description adds significant value: for 'event' it explains walking child markets and partition checks; for 'topic' it explains cross-event scanning and Jaccard similarity. Examples of acceptable values are provided, enhancing understanding beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: finding arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes three modes (no args, event, topic) with concrete examples. While sibling tools exist, the description's specificity differentiates it effectively.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit when-to-use guidance: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan', 'pass event for...', 'topic for...'. It recommends event mode for specific markets and topic for cross-event scanning. It also advises when not to trade (if realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0) and mentions polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.5/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools have heavily overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all handle query routing, and the five polymarket_* tools plus bet_research blur the line between market scanning, edge detection, and fill-risk analysis. Several pairs (entity_profile/compare_entities/recent_changes, ai_visibility_check/scan_competitor_ai_presence) also overlap substantially.

Naming Consistency2/5

The tool names mix multiple conventions: verb_noun (validate_gtin, list_subscriptions, generate_llms_txt), brand-prefixed groups (pipeworx_*, polymarket_*, ask_pipeworx*), and bare nouns (entity_profile, recent_alerts). The server is named after GTIN/barcodes, yet most tools are branded Pipeworx or Polymarket, making the set feel incoherently named.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools is well over the threshold where a typical agent can comfortably navigate the surface, especially since they span unrelated domains: barcode validation, data lookups, prediction-market arbitrage, memory storage, subscriptions, npm scanning, and llms.txt generation. The count reflects an overgrown grab bag rather than a well-scoped toolset.

Completeness2/5

There is no coherent domain to assess completeness against: for the server's apparent GTIN/barcode purpose, only gtin_check_digit and validate_gtin exist (and not even a lookup for product data by GTIN). For the broader Pipeworx platform hinted at by most tools, the surface is scattered, with deep coverage of prediction-market edges but arbitrary one-off utilities elsewhere.

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