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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedInput schema / examples
      Added value: +[
      +  {
      +    "topic": "fed"
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "topic": "btc"
      +  }
      +]
  2. Added

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

With readOnlyHint/openWorldHint/idempotentHint already present, the description still adds substantial behavioral detail: compatibility_codes semantics, pairing_unverified being set in EITHER mode, gross versus net spread fees, null temporal_alignment meaning, unknown legs never being paired, and skipped counter behavior. This far exceeds what the annotations convey.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense but front-loaded: the first sentence states the core function, and nearly every subsequent sentence carries necessary safety or interpretation guidance. It is long and formatted as a wall of text, which slightly hurts scannability, but it earns its length given the complexity and absence of an output schema.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a three-parameter tool with no output schema, the description is exceptionally complete: it covers modes, response fields, safety codes, null semantics, fee treatment, skipped-pair counters, and the non-tradeability caveat. An agent has enough information to select and invoke the tool correctly and to interpret its results, even without an output schema.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3. The description adds value by explaining that explicit kalshi_event_ticker and polymarket_event_slug are used together for custom pairings, that they override the topic-mapped side, and that both modes run the identical token-overlap matcher. This is meaningful semantic enrichment beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly identifies the resource: a cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question, and explains the two invocation modes (topic shortcuts vs explicit ticker/slug). It does not explicitly distinguish itself from the sibling tool polymarket_arbitrage, which appears closely related, so it stops short of a 5.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives clear usage context: when asking about the same question priced on both venues, use the pre-mapped topic shortcuts or explicit custom pairings. It also gives important guidance that most pre-mapped topics are not tradeable and that compatibility warnings should be read even when pairs are returned. It does not explicitly name exclusion criteria or alternatives, but the context is strong.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools have overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx/ask_pipeworx_grounded/deep_research all handle broad queries; multiple Polymarket tools exist for edge finding; entity_profile/compare_entities/recent_changes/resolve_entity overlap on company data. An agent would struggle to pick the right tool.

Naming Consistency2/5

Naming patterns are mixed: some use verb_noun (search_opportunities, get_opportunity), some are phrases (ask_pipeworx_grounded, polymarket_edge_tracker), and some are vague (recall, forget). No consistent convention across the set.

Tool Count2/5

32 tools is high, but the core issue is that the server name 'Grants Gov' implies a narrow focus, yet only 2 tools are about grants. The sheer number of unrelated tools makes the set feel bloated and unfocused.

Completeness3/5

For the actual domain of general data querying and prediction markets, the tool surface is fairly complete, covering many sources. However, for 'Grants Gov' it is severely incomplete (missing all but opportunities). Overall, the scope is broad but lacks depth in any one area.